TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Paril vs Matyas Navedla 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Ondrej Paril at 64.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 15–10 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3864.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Paril
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-10 in 25
Paril
Correct
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1879 vs Navedla 1731
Paril
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 80% vs Navedla 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 50% vs Navedla 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +1 · Navedla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Paril) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.533 / Navedla 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Paril)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13226928
Paril1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 164 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it93% 78 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it77% 122 of 159
Navedla2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 134 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back26% 42 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil7wins
AwayNavedla3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil71.4%5 of 7
AwayNavedla33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril7Navedla3n = 10Paril took 7 of 10
S2Paril7Navedla3n = 10Paril took 7 of 10
S3Paril5Navedla5n = 10split evenly
S4Paril2Navedla5n = 7Navedla took 5 of 7
S5Paril3Navedla1n = 4Paril took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilNavedlaP − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.336.7+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime509 / 974 vs 381 / 80852.3%47.2%509 / 974 vs 381 / 808Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.53/Navedla 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 10:00O. Paril331111113M. Navedla246990
WSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril53811193123M. Navedla531141711102
LAug 23 · 16:30O. Paril4211118482M. Navedla48871111113
WAug 12 · 15:30O. Paril3712311113M. Navedla341011761
WAug 11 · 09:30O. Paril331111113M. Navedla164660
WAug 11 · 07:30O. Paril4111118113M. Navedla28461171
WJul 30 · 07:00O. Paril46111158113M. Navedla4047111172
LJul 29 · 08:58O. Paril27115110M. Navedla371311133
LJul 29 · 07:00O. Paril27113671M. Navedla3851111113
WJul 28 · 16:30O. Paril548131111113M. Navedla49111161382
O. Paril10
WOct 1 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.736670O. Paril2.001111113LOct 1 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.731111113O. Paril2.003760WOct 1 · 11:00T. Zika1.9113915992O. Paril1.8011111311113WOct 1 · 10:30O. Paril1.8012117113P. Wawrosz1.911091191WSep 29 · 16:58M. Biolek1.6711711111O. Paril2.1071113133LSep 29 · 16:30T. Zika1.8312115113O. Paril1.831091141LSep 29 · 15:30O. Paril4.0091090R. Niezgoda1.221112113WSep 29 · 14:30M. Biolek1.731298111O. Paril2.00101111133LSep 27 · 21:00T. Dousek1.831111113O. Paril1.838770LSep 27 · 20:00T. Dousek1.839111110113O. Paril1.8311581252
M. Navedla10
WSep 30 · 17:30T. Dousek1.63116114102M. Navedla2.13611711123LSep 30 · 16:30J. Pilch1.671111811113M. Navedla2.1091311992WSep 30 · 15:30M. Navedla2.38128115123T. Dousek1.531011511102WSep 30 · 14:30T. Zika1.61151011782M. Navedla2.201312711113WSep 26 · 13:09M. Navedla1.50111111113L. Prikasky2.40791311LSep 26 · 12:30D. Tomica1.617111111143M. Navedla2.20116135122LSep 26 · 11:30M. Navedla2.10111410872J. Pilch1.671121211113WSep 26 · 10:30L. Prikasky2.104450M. Navedla1.671111113LSep 25 · 20:59M. Navedla2.25881181M. Cabis1.5711117113WSep 25 · 20:30M. Navedla2.20118611113M. Cabis1.6191111692
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