TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Tomica vs Matyas Navedla 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71111611131151412
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tomica to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Tomica above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 101 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Daniel Tomica at 60.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tomica 9–5 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tomica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Tomica
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tomica 1781 vs Navedla 1706
Tomica
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tomica 40% vs Navedla 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tomica 60% vs Navedla 40%
Tomica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tomica +1 · Navedla -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Tomica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTomica 1.61 / Navedla 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Tomica)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13195160
Tomica1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 22 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Navedla2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 133 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back24% 40 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTomica7wins
AwayNavedla3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTomica leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTomica83.3%5 of 6
AwayNavedla50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tomica6Navedla4n = 10Tomica took 6 of 10
S2Tomica3Navedla7n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S3Tomica7Navedla3n = 10Tomica took 7 of 10
S4Tomica7Navedla3n = 10Tomica took 7 of 10
S5Tomica3Navedla2n = 5Tomica took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTomicaNavedlaT − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.341.30.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTomicaNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 192 vs 377 / 80149%47.1%94 / 192 vs 377 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TomicaTomica 1.61/Navedla 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Tomica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 16:30D. Tomica4071111113M. Navedla37118991
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica4313118113M. Navedla301131151
WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica4111811113M. Navedla30711841
LJul 11 · 13:03D. Tomica4311781162M. Navedla46811115113
WJul 11 · 11:00D. Tomica51691112133M. Navedla511111810112
WJun 7 · 17:00D. Tomica42111117123M. Navedla50911911102
WJun 7 · 16:00D. Tomica49117164113M. Navedla49911141142
LJun 1 · 16:00D. Tomica3231121152M. Navedla44118113113
LMay 26 · 17:00D. Tomica29671151M. Navedla4211119113
WMay 26 · 15:00D. Tomica4313811113M. Navedla341111841
D. Tomica10
LSep 26 · 13:31J. Pilch2.10911116123D. Tomica1.67118611102WSep 26 · 11:00D. Tomica2.639111113113L. Prikasky1.4411461582LSep 26 · 10:00J. Pilch1.73391111133D. Tomica2.00111178112LSep 24 · 17:30D. Tomica2.001144101J. Pilch1.7361111123WSep 24 · 16:00D. Tomica1.9111611113J. Pilch1.80011781LSep 24 · 15:30M. Grundel1.67137911133D. Tomica2.101111115112WSep 24 · 14:00D. Tomica1.7311111010113M. Cabis2.0097121272LSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113WSep 19 · 16:30M. Navedla2.10118991D. Tomica1.6771111113WSep 19 · 15:30D. Tomica1.73941111113M. Cabis2.0011116692
M. Navedla10
WSep 26 · 13:09M. Navedla1.50111111113L. Prikasky2.40791311LSep 26 · 11:30M. Navedla2.10111410872J. Pilch1.671121211113WSep 26 · 10:30L. Prikasky2.104450M. Navedla1.671111113LSep 25 · 20:59M. Navedla2.25881181M. Cabis1.5711117113WSep 25 · 20:30M. Navedla2.20118611113M. Cabis1.6191111692LSep 25 · 19:00M. Navedla2.25810111172M. Vavrecka1.57111257113LSep 25 · 18:00R. Revay1.73111511113M. Navedla2.00717981WSep 25 · 09:00R. Revay1.671211111052M. Navedla2.10145812113WSep 25 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.739840M. Navedla2.001111113LSep 19 · 16:30M. Navedla2.10118991D. Tomica1.6771111113
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