TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Tomica vs Jakub Pilch 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Daniel Tomica
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
110611117118––
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Tomica above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 11-0
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 65 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tomica 6–8 Jakub Pilch Daniel Tomica has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:31What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pilch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Pilch
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tomica 1801 vs Pilch 1828
Pilch
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tomica 80% vs Pilch 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tomica 80% vs Pilch 60%
Tomica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tomica +1 · Pilch +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tomica) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTomica 1.91 / Pilch 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tomica)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13183032
Tomica1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 24 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back18% 3 of 17
Pilch1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 53 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTomica5wins
AwayPilch5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTomica66.7%4 of 6
AwayPilch75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tomica6Pilch4n = 10Tomica took 6 of 10
S2Tomica3Pilch7n = 10Pilch took 7 of 10
S3Tomica5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S4Tomica4Pilch4n = 8split evenly
S5Tomica2Pilch1n = 3Tomica took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTomicaPilchT − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.80.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTomicaPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 187 vs 228 / 45249.2%50.4%92 / 187 vs 228 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TomicaTomica 1.91/Pilch 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tomica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica4511881172J. Pilch47511119113
WSep 19 · 14:30D. Tomica4211911113J. Pilch30511951
WSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica45551111133J. Pilch49111197112
WJul 17 · 14:30D. Tomica341111123J. Pilch2578100
LJul 11 · 12:30D. Tomica4191110111J. Pilch4311712133
LJul 4 · 17:30D. Tomica28711100J. Pilch361113123
WJul 4 · 16:00D. Tomica4212811113J. Pilch311011461
WJul 2 · 16:30D. Tomica45116116113J. Pilch4481161182
LMar 19 · 16:00D. Tomica28711731J. Pilch4111811113
LJul 20 · 14:00D. Tomica38119991J. Pilch4291111113
D. Tomica10
LSep 24 · 15:30M. Grundel1.67137911133D. Tomica2.101111115112WSep 24 · 14:00D. Tomica1.7311111010113M. Cabis2.0097121272LSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113WSep 19 · 16:30M. Navedla2.10118991D. Tomica1.6771111113WSep 19 · 15:30D. Tomica1.73941111113M. Cabis2.0011116692WSep 19 · 14:30J. Pilch1.73511951D. Tomica2.0011911113WSep 18 · 17:30D. Tomica2.381112119113R. Polasek1.53710131192WSep 18 · 16:30D. Tomica2.38111110113R. Polasek1.53991231WSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:00M. Grundel1.571011114113D. Tomica2.2512981162
J. Pilch10
WSep 24 · 15:00M. Cabis1.91611571J. Pilch1.8011811113WSep 24 · 14:30J. Pilch1.7311311113M. Grundel2.00411591LSep 24 · 13:30J. Pilch2.90138114132R. Revay1.351111411153WSep 24 · 12:30T. Zika2.0011960J. Pilch1.731311113WSep 24 · 11:30J. Pilch2.7511114113J. Szotkowski1.40991171LSep 24 · 10:30R. Revay1.36711116113J. Pilch3.0011671152LSep 23 · 13:30T. Zika1.871111113J. Pilch1.835970WSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113LSep 19 · 14:30J. Pilch1.73511951D. Tomica2.0011911113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112
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