TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Sawicki vs Michal Durda 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311117811611911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:08 and never touched: 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
1311117811611911
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 1–3 Michal Durda Grzegorz Sawicki has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0859.1%Our read65.8%to break even at 1.52
short by 6.7pp65.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.52 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Durda
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1262 vs Durda 1253
Sawicki
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 20% vs Durda 40%
Durda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 20% vs Durda 40%
Durda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki -4 · Durda +1
Sawicki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Durda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (40%) is below what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 2.30 / Durda 1.52
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Durda)-6.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13235291
Sawicki2.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 127 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back20% 48 of 241
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 152
Durda1.52
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite73% won 196 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it96% 98 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it89% 138 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSawicki1wins
AwayDurda3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderDurda leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki2Durda2n = 4split evenly
S2Sawicki0Durda4n = 4Durda took 4 of 4
S3Sawicki1Durda3n = 4Durda took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricSawickiDurdaS − DBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match32.842.2−9.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 921 vs 210 / 29239.4%71.9%363 / 921 vs 210 / 292Avg sets wonper match1.82.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaSawicki 2.30/Durda 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.1%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 18 · 02:35G. Sawicki2581160M. Durda351113113
LJul 5 · 21:35G. Sawicki124170M. Durda331111113
LJul 5 · 15:35G. Sawicki421499101M. Durda46121111123
WJul 4 · 00:10G. Sawicki52134119153M. Durda551111911132
G. Sawicki10
LOct 3 · 07:45G. Sawicki1.836580S. Sojka1.831111113LOct 3 · 06:30G. Sawicki2.007140L. Bernacki1.731111113LOct 3 · 05:15G. Sawicki2.259131661J. Jesiek1.57111514113LOct 3 · 04:10W. Wojtaszczyk1.366131110113G. Sawicki3.00111171272WOct 3 · 03:25G. Sawicki1.73711411143O. Sokolowski2.00117117122LOct 3 · 01:45O. Vincenec1.731311611113G. Sawicki2.0015711872LOct 3 · 01:00K. Juszczyk1.4411127113G. Sawicki2.634101191LOct 3 · 00:10G. Sawicki2.506650L. Oracz1.501111113WOct 2 · 22:35G. Sawicki1.80111167113M. Baron1.9164111172LOct 2 · 21:45J. Nowak1.914111111113G. Sawicki1.8011137872
M. Durda10
WOct 3 · 19:10M. Durda2.001111911113M. Sikon1.7013911732WOct 3 · 14:20M. Durda2.1581111123P. Krukar1.611139101LOct 3 · 13:30M. Zwolinski2.051111107113M. Durda1.6587121182WOct 3 · 12:40J. Rolak2.0012111012112M. Durda1.711481210133LOct 3 · 11:00M. Durda1.764111091A. Eliasz1.9511412113LSep 23 · 00:35K. Marchlewski1.901111123M. Durda1.8054100LSep 22 · 22:55M. Skorski2.251212113M. Durda1.57101060LSep 22 · 22:15J. Rolak1.901191212113M. Durda1.80611141042LSep 22 · 21:30W. Gluszek2.151111113M. Durda1.603570WSep 22 · 20:05M. Durda1.661111113M. Skorski2.104870
Upcoming Matches
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M. Durda
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