TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Sawicki vs Jakub Jesiek 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91113151614611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:12 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Jesiek to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Sawicki above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 95 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Jakub Jesiek at 61.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 10–25 Jakub Jesiek Grzegorz Sawicki has won 10 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1261.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jesiek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-25 in 35
Jesiek
Correct
gap of 15 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1291 vs Jesiek 1353
Jesiek
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 20% vs Jesiek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 40% vs Jesiek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki -1 · Jesiek -4
Jesiek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Jesiek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jesiek form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 2.25 / Jesiek 1.571
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Jesiek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232688
Sawicki2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 127 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back20% 48 of 241
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 152
Jesiek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 83 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 61 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSawicki5wins
AwayJesiek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSawicki80%4 of 5
AwayJesiek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki5Jesiek5n = 10split evenly
S2Sawicki3Jesiek7n = 10Jesiek took 7 of 10
S3Sawicki4Jesiek6n = 10Jesiek took 6 of 10
S4Sawicki3Jesiek4n = 7Jesiek took 4 of 7
S5Sawicki3Jesiek0n = 3Sawicki took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSawickiJesiekS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.239.5−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 918 vs 284 / 54539.5%52.1%363 / 918 vs 284 / 545Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JesiekSawicki 2.25/Jesiek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Jesiek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 22:25G. Sawicki32512961J. Jesiek43111011113
LAug 30 · 20:00G. Sawicki176470J. Jesiek331111113
WAug 17 · 02:00G. Sawicki331111113J. Jesiek226880
LAug 16 · 16:25G. Sawicki196940J. Jesiek331111113
WJul 19 · 20:00G. Sawicki49611138113J. Jesiek46116111172
WJul 17 · 23:45G. Sawicki561381113113J. Jesiek531111131172
LJul 12 · 22:50G. Sawicki31961151J. Jesiek3911116113
WJul 12 · 15:10G. Sawicki4312712123J. Jesiek41101110101
WJul 5 · 23:35G. Sawicki48116911113J. Jesiek4371111772
LJul 5 · 17:35G. Sawicki341161071J. Jesiek4281112113
G. Sawicki10
LOct 3 · 06:30G. Sawicki2.007140L. Bernacki1.731111113LOct 3 · 04:10W. Wojtaszczyk1.366131110113G. Sawicki3.00111171272WOct 3 · 03:25G. Sawicki1.73711411143O. Sokolowski2.00117117122LOct 3 · 01:45O. Vincenec1.731311611113G. Sawicki2.0015711872LOct 3 · 01:00K. Juszczyk1.4411127113G. Sawicki2.634101191LOct 3 · 00:10G. Sawicki2.506650L. Oracz1.501111113WOct 2 · 22:35G. Sawicki1.80111167113M. Baron1.9164111172LOct 2 · 21:45J. Nowak1.914111111113G. Sawicki1.8011137872LSep 20 · 04:20R. Szymik1.441111113G. Sawicki2.607470WSep 20 · 03:30D. Dytko1.697880G. Sawicki2.061111113
J. Jesiek10
LOct 3 · 04:30S. Sojka1.83118511113J. Jesiek1.8391111992LOct 3 · 03:00W. Wojtaszczyk1.6111114143J. Jesiek2.207611121LSep 26 · 14:40M. Lach1.501111113J. Jesiek2.507180LSep 26 · 13:30J. Jesiek2.7561070A. Cichocki1.401112113WSep 26 · 12:15P. Polok1.405990J. Jesiek2.751111113LSep 26 · 11:00R. Idaczyk1.83411116113J. Jesiek1.8311831172WSep 26 · 09:25R. Piechnik1.83108100J. Jesiek1.831211123LSep 26 · 08:35P. Polok1.36411611123J. Jesiek3.00117116102WSep 26 · 07:20J. Jesiek1.83119511113R. Piechnik1.8341111772WSep 26 · 06:05R. Szymik1.8081111672J. Jesiek1.91117911113
Upcoming Matches
G. Sawicki
Oct 3 · 07:45G. Sawicki1.83S. Sojka1.83—Oct 3 · 18:20G. Sawicki—M. Durda——Oct 3 · 19:30G. Sawicki—J. Badura——Oct 3 · 20:20G. Sawicki—R. Wiza——Oct 3 · 21:05G. Sawicki—R. Szymik——Oct 3 · 22:40G. Sawicki—M. Sikon——Oct 4 · 00:20G. Sawicki—R. Wiza——Oct 4 · 01:30G. Sawicki—J. Badura——Oct 4 · 02:20G. Sawicki—M. Durda——Oct 4 · 03:05G. Sawicki—R. Szymik——
J. Jesiek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.