TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Polok vs Jakub Jesiek 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:27 and never touched — 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Polok above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Pawel Polok at 73.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Polok 3–1 Jakub Jesiek Jakub Jesiek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Polok beat Jesiek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Polok
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1451 vs Jesiek 1381
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 40% vs Jesiek 60%
Jesiek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 50% vs Jesiek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok -2 · Jesiek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jesiek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.40 / Jesiek 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Polok)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13194733
Polok1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 109 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 90 of 110
Jesiek2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 73 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePolok3wins
AwayJesiek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderPolok leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok2Jesiek2n = 4split evenly
S2Polok3Jesiek1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4
S3Polok2Jesiek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricPolokJesiekP − JBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.028.8+4.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 242 vs 283 / 54064.1%52.4%155 / 242 vs 283 / 540Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.40/Jesiek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.1%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 26 · 08:35P. Polok44411611123J. Jesiek45117116102
LSep 20 · 12:40P. Polok229670J. Jesiek331111113
WSep 20 · 06:30P. Polok331111113J. Jesiek188820
WAug 11 · 03:00P. Polok331111113J. Jesiek199640
P. Polok10
WSep 26 · 13:05M. Lach1.91711671P. Polok1.8011611113LSep 26 · 10:35P. Polok2.50101191182A. Cichocki1.50127116113LSep 26 · 09:50R. Idaczyk2.5011119113P. Polok1.50871151WSep 26 · 08:35P. Polok1.36411611123J. Jesiek3.00117116102WSep 26 · 06:55P. Polok1.501111113R. Szymik2.509850LSep 26 · 05:40P. Polok1.57381271M. Lach2.25111110113LSep 26 · 04:10P. Polok2.10115881A. Cichocki1.6771111113WSep 26 · 03:00P. Polok1.401011711113R. Piechnik2.7512511682LSep 25 · 08:20P. Polok1.757890M. Lebek1.901111113WSep 25 · 06:45Y. Fomin2.62414791P. Polok1.44111211113
J. Jesiek10
LSep 26 · 11:00R. Idaczyk1.83411116113J. Jesiek1.8311831172WSep 26 · 09:25R. Piechnik1.83108100J. Jesiek1.831211123LSep 26 · 08:35P. Polok1.36411611123J. Jesiek3.00117116102WSep 26 · 07:20J. Jesiek1.83119511113R. Piechnik1.8341111772WSep 26 · 06:05R. Szymik1.8081111672J. Jesiek1.91117911113LSep 26 · 04:55M. Lach1.44114116113J. Jesiek2.6361141172WSep 26 · 03:25A. Cichocki1.301511111182J. Jesiek3.40177139113WSep 20 · 13:55J. Jesiek1.15111111113A. Szurgot3.85413431WSep 20 · 12:40J. Jesiek3.751111113P. Polok1.259670LSep 20 · 11:25J. Jesiek2.5010118111W. Wojtaszczyk1.5012511133
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