TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Lach vs Pawel Polok 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711116611711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:06 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Lach above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Pawel Polok at 68.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Lach 1–0 Pawel Polok Pawel Polok has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:06What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lach 1452 vs Polok 1442
Lach
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lach 80% vs Polok 40%
Lach
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lach 60% vs Polok 40%
Lach
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lach +1 · Polok -3
Polok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLach 1.91 / Polok 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polok)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13198282
Lach1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 18 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Polok1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 109 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 90 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLach1wins
AwayPolok0wins
Lach leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLachPolokL − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.030.0+13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLachPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 244 vs 155 / 24361.5%63.8%150 / 244 vs 155 / 243Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokLach 1.91/Polok 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 26 · 05:40M. Lach43111110113P. Polok30381271
M. Lach10
WSep 26 · 11:50M. Lach1.281111113R. Idaczyk3.508570LSep 26 · 10:10M. Lach1.61111261172R. Piechnik2.20814116113WSep 26 · 09:00M. Lach2.631011811113A. Cichocki1.4412311592WSep 26 · 08:10M. Lach1.571111113R. Piechnik2.259740WSep 26 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.4411116792M. Lach2.63891111113WSep 26 · 05:40P. Polok1.57381271M. Lach2.25111110113WSep 26 · 04:55M. Lach1.44114116113J. Jesiek2.6361141172LSep 26 · 03:50M. Lach1.80116251R. Szymik1.9191111113LSep 13 · 14:20M. Lach1.834540J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 13 · 12:40A. Cichocki1.50101411113M. Lach2.501212451
P. Polok10
WSep 26 · 13:55R. Piechnik3.254980P. Polok1.331111113LSep 26 · 12:15P. Polok1.405990J. Jesiek2.751111113LSep 26 · 10:35P. Polok2.50101191182A. Cichocki1.50127116113LSep 26 · 09:50R. Idaczyk2.5011119113P. Polok1.50871151WSep 26 · 08:35P. Polok1.36411611123J. Jesiek3.00117116102WSep 26 · 06:55P. Polok1.501111113R. Szymik2.509850LSep 26 · 05:40P. Polok1.57381271M. Lach2.25111110113LSep 26 · 04:10P. Polok2.10115881A. Cichocki1.6771111113WSep 26 · 03:00P. Polok1.401011711113R. Piechnik2.7512511682LSep 25 · 08:20P. Polok1.757890M. Lebek1.901111113
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