TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Durda vs Mateusz Sikon 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113119911117113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched: 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1113119911117113
H2H Michal Durda 5–0 Mateusz Sikon Mateusz Sikon has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:0856.4%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 2.4pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Sikon
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Durda
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durda 1280 vs Sikon 1409
Sikon
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 60% vs Sikon 80%
Sikon
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 40% vs Sikon 70%
Sikon
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda +2 · Sikon +3
Sikon
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Sikon) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 2.00 / Sikon 1.70
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sikon)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239821
Durda2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Sikon1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDurda5wins
AwaySikon0wins
2 of 5 to a deciderDurda leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurda100%4 of 4
AwaySikonn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durda4Sikon1n = 5Durda took 4 of 5
S2Durda4Sikon1n = 5Durda took 4 of 5
S3Durda3Sikon2n = 5Durda took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDurdaSikonD − SBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match41.028.8+12.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 294 vs 198 / 47672.1%41.6%212 / 294 vs 198 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SikonDurda 2.00/Sikon 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 3 · 19:10M. Durda531111911113M. Sikon4313911732
WJul 28 · 00:10M. Durda351311113M. Sikon2211650
WJul 27 · 20:20M. Durda331111113M. Sikon153570
WJul 23 · 14:20M. Durda331111113M. Sikon208390
WJul 23 · 08:10M. Durda51119911113M. Sikon4471111962
M. Durda10
WOct 3 · 18:20G. Sawicki2.3013118692M. Durda1.521171111113WOct 3 · 14:20M. Durda2.1581111123P. Krukar1.611139101LOct 3 · 13:30M. Zwolinski2.051111107113M. Durda1.6587121182WOct 3 · 12:40J. Rolak2.0012111012112M. Durda1.711481210133LOct 3 · 11:00M. Durda1.764111091A. Eliasz1.9511412113LSep 23 · 00:35K. Marchlewski1.901111123M. Durda1.8054100LSep 22 · 22:55M. Skorski2.251212113M. Durda1.57101060LSep 22 · 22:15J. Rolak1.901191212113M. Durda1.80611141042LSep 22 · 21:30W. Gluszek2.151111113M. Durda1.603570WSep 22 · 20:05M. Durda1.661111113M. Skorski2.104870
M. Sikon10
WOct 3 · 19:55R. Szymik1.61791191M. Sikon2.2011113113WOct 3 · 17:30R. Wiza2.15131011862M. Sikon1.601112711113WSep 30 · 16:40B. Madej2.301166171M. Sikon1.5261111193WSep 30 · 15:55W. Buczynski2.4088111162M. Sikon1.50111179113LSep 30 · 13:55K. Schaniel1.758111513123M. Sikon1.9511131311102WSep 30 · 13:10R. Gajda2.30812891M. Sikon1.55111011113WSep 30 · 11:30M. Rus2.191169111M. Sikon1.6181111133WSep 30 · 10:40B. Madej2.5011911362M. Sikon1.47711611113LSep 30 · 09:55W. Buczynski2.2713911113M. Sikon1.571111871WSep 30 · 07:55K. Schaniel1.8511991162M. Sikon1.85611118113
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