TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Makajew vs Maciej Kolek 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411211117411––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Makajew above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 61 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Maciej Kolek at 61.2%
61 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Makajew 3–4 Maciej Kolek Maciej Makajew has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2561.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makajew 1398 vs Kolek 1657
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 258 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makajew 20% vs Kolek 80%
Kolek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makajew 20% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makajew -3 · Kolek +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakajew 2.375 / Kolek 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kolek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13234064
Makajew2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 17 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Kolek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 258 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it94% 86 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 193 of 239
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMakajew3wins
AwayKolek4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderKolek leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakajewn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makajew2Kolek5n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S2Makajew4Kolek3n = 7Makajew took 4 of 7
S3Makajew3Kolek4n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S4Makajew4Kolek2n = 6Makajew took 4 of 6
S5Makajew1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMakajewKolekM − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match39.739.9−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakajewKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 389 vs 757 / 150053.7%50.5%209 / 389 vs 757 / 1500Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekMakajew 2.38/Kolek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 28 · 06:50M. Makajew4781181192M. Kolek42115114113
WApr 17 · 11:00M. Makajew44111111113M. Kolek34138581
LFeb 15 · 01:15M. Makajew47125121172M. Kolek551011149113
WFeb 14 · 22:50M. Makajew4071111113M. Kolek34117791
LFeb 14 · 00:45M. Makajew2410680M. Kolek341211113
WFeb 13 · 22:20M. Makajew451111102113M. Kolek3956121152
LJan 23 · 18:20M. Makajew31771161M. Kolek4111118113
M. Makajew10
LOct 3 · 21:00M. Kolek1.5312118113M. Makajew2.381071181LOct 3 · 18:50M. Makajew1.6781161142B. Sulkowski2.10119119113LOct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew2.0031111552S. Brud1.73116511113LOct 3 · 16:05M. Makajew2.00212691M. Kukawka1.73111011113WOct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew1.6181111123R. Stapor2.201194101LOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641WOct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67711541M. Makajew2.1011911113LOct 2 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.3011711113M. Makajew3.40411671LOct 2 · 22:30G. Kesik1.916111110113M. Makajew1.8011751272LOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal1.331111123M. Makajew3.2578100
M. Kolek10
WOct 3 · 21:00M. Kolek1.5312118113M. Makajew2.381071181WOct 3 · 19:15M. Kolek1.33911711113R. Stapor3.2511911492WOct 3 · 18:05B. Sulkowski2.6381080M. Kolek1.441112113WOct 3 · 16:55S. Brud2.25711381M. Kolek1.5711711113WOct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka2.50119681M. Kolek1.5091111113LOct 2 · 08:05K. Wisniewski1.7512115113M. Kolek1.951081181LOct 2 · 07:15K. Kapik1.551111113M. Kolek2.258960LOct 2 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.901111123M. Kolek1.7588100WOct 2 · 04:25M. Rutkowski1.85511101162M. Kolek1.86119127113WOct 2 · 03:00P. Jendrzejewski1.6011116892M. Kolek2.15771111113
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