TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Maciej Makajew 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210117811118––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Maciej Makajew below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Maciej Kolek at 61.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 5–3 Maciej Makajew Maciej Makajew has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kolek beat Makajew 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5261.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Kolek
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1661 vs Makajew 1394
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 268 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 100% vs Makajew 20%
Kolek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 70% vs Makajew 20%
Kolek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +5 · Makajew -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makajew form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.533 / Makajew 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kolek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13234063
Kolek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 258 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it94% 86 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 193 of 239
Makajew2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 17 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKolek5wins
AwayMakajew3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKolek leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek66.7%4 of 6
AwayMakajewn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek6Makajew2n = 8Kolek took 6 of 8
S2Kolek4Makajew4n = 8split evenly
S3Kolek4Makajew4n = 8split evenly
S4Kolek3Makajew4n = 7Makajew took 4 of 7
S5Kolek2Makajew1n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKolekMakajewK − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match39.937.4+2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekMakajewBasisWin rate · lifetime758 / 1501 vs 209 / 38950.5%53.7%758 / 1501 vs 209 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.53/Makajew 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 3 · 20:30M. Kolek4011117113M. Makajew21421141
WAug 28 · 06:50M. Kolek42115114113M. Makajew4781181192
LApr 17 · 11:00M. Kolek34138581M. Makajew44111111113
WFeb 15 · 01:15M. Kolek551011149113M. Makajew47125121172
LFeb 14 · 22:50M. Kolek34117791M. Makajew4071111113
WFeb 14 · 00:45M. Kolek341211113M. Makajew2410680
LFeb 13 · 22:20M. Kolek3956121152M. Makajew451111102113
WJan 23 · 18:20M. Kolek4111118113M. Makajew31771161
M. Kolek10
WOct 3 · 20:30M. Makajew2.38421141M. Kolek1.5311117113WOct 3 · 19:15M. Kolek1.33911711113R. Stapor3.2511911492WOct 3 · 18:05B. Sulkowski2.6381080M. Kolek1.441112113WOct 3 · 16:55S. Brud2.25711381M. Kolek1.5711711113WOct 3 · 15:25M. Kukawka2.50119681M. Kolek1.5091111113LOct 2 · 08:05K. Wisniewski1.7512115113M. Kolek1.951081181LOct 2 · 07:15K. Kapik1.551111113M. Kolek2.258960LOct 2 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.901111123M. Kolek1.7588100WOct 2 · 04:25M. Rutkowski1.85511101162M. Kolek1.86119127113WOct 2 · 03:00P. Jendrzejewski1.6011116892M. Kolek2.15771111113
M. Makajew10
LOct 3 · 20:30M. Makajew2.38421141M. Kolek1.5311117113LOct 3 · 18:50M. Makajew1.6781161142B. Sulkowski2.10119119113LOct 3 · 17:40M. Makajew2.0031111552S. Brud1.73116511113LOct 3 · 16:05M. Makajew2.00212691M. Kukawka1.73111011113WOct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew1.6181111123R. Stapor2.201194101LOct 3 · 01:30M. Kukawka1.83111211113M. Makajew1.83414641WOct 2 · 23:55S. Brud1.67711541M. Makajew2.1011911113LOct 2 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.3011711113M. Makajew3.40411671LOct 2 · 22:30G. Kesik1.916111110113M. Makajew1.8011751272LOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal1.331111123M. Makajew3.2578100
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