TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kowalski vs Lukasz Oracz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119611711116119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Lukasz Oracz at 66.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 4–2 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1666.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kowalski
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1065 vs Oracz 1363
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 298 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 20% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 10% vs Oracz 50%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -4 · Oracz +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 2.625 / Oracz 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Oracz)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232417
Kowalski2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog18% won 29 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back6% 6 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 69
Oracz1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 363 of 578
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it81% 283 of 349
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKowalski4wins
AwayOracz2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKowalski leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalski100%3 of 3
AwayOracz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalski3Oracz3n = 6split evenly
S2Kowalski4Oracz2n = 6Kowalski took 4 of 6
S3Kowalski2Oracz4n = 6Oracz took 4 of 6
S4Kowalski3Oracz3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKowalskiOraczK − OBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.840.0−2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 174 vs 858 / 156216.7%54.9%29 / 174 vs 858 / 1562Avg sets wonper match1.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKowalski 2.63/Oracz 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kowalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 17 · 11:50K. Kowalski4381111133L. Oracz361195111
WSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski3911413113L. Oracz409111191
LAug 6 · 13:30K. Kowalski27511291L. Oracz4111811113
WAug 6 · 07:20K. Kowalski47119511113L. Oracz4281111842
WJul 29 · 13:30K. Kowalski46111167113L. Oracz4158111162
LJul 29 · 07:20K. Kowalski25711341L. Oracz4011711113
K. Kowalski10
LOct 2 · 18:55K. Kowalski4.00551251K. Juszczyk1.22111110113LOct 2 · 17:45K. Kowalski3.001031191J. Nowak1.3612113113LOct 2 · 16:15K. Kowalski3.408870O. Vincenec1.301111113LOct 2 · 15:00K. Kowalski3.254111181M. Baron1.3311137113WSep 30 · 14:20K. Kowalski5.5011115113P. Brozek1.13471141LSep 30 · 12:40K. Adamus1.221411113K. Kowalski4.0012690LSep 30 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.1716136113K. Kowalski4.5014111191LSep 30 · 11:00K. Kowalski6.501061181O. Jadach1.1012116113LSep 30 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.007450I. Szymanski1.361111113LSep 30 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.405101112142P. Brozek1.301112610163
L. Oracz10
LOct 2 · 21:20O. Vincenec1.8061111113L. Oracz1.91115991WOct 2 · 19:20L. Oracz1.671114133M. Baron2.10812110WOct 2 · 18:10K. Juszczyk1.8071111882L. Oracz1.91118411113WOct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.3845110L. Oracz1.531111133LOct 2 · 15:25O. Vincenec1.8091111123L. Oracz1.911199101WOct 1 · 08:00L. Oracz1.80111311113P. Kurek1.90515381LOct 1 · 06:45L. Oracz1.88311591M. Jozefiak1.8211411113LOct 1 · 05:35L. Oracz2.2551090M. Lebek1.551112113LOct 1 · 04:25O. Sokolowski1.951111123L. Oracz1.7567100LOct 1 · 03:35L. Oracz1.52111011692A. Burkacki2.37512811113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kowalski
L. Oracz
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.