TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavlo Melnichuk vs Yuriy Shcherbak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214611118811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Melnichuk above · Yuriy Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Melnichuk 9–13 Yuriy Shcherbak Pavlo Melnichuk has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnichuk 930 vs Shcherbak 899
Melnichuk
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnichuk 80% vs Shcherbak 60%
Melnichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnichuk 80% vs Shcherbak 50%
Melnichuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnichuk +3 · Shcherbak -1
Melnichuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnichuk 1.833 / Shcherbak 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shcherbak)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13229125
Melnichuk1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Shcherbak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnichuk5wins
AwayShcherbak5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnichuk50%2 of 4
AwayShcherbak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnichuk4Shcherbak6n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S2Melnichuk5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S3Melnichuk5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S4Melnichuk5Shcherbak4n = 9Melnichuk took 5 of 9
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnichukShcherbakM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.3−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnichukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 196 vs 152 / 28755.6%53%109 / 196 vs 152 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakMelnichuk 1.83/Shcherbak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 10:55P. Melnichuk371261181Y. Shcherbak4414118113
WOct 1 · 13:55P. Melnichuk44111111113Y. Shcherbak35139941
WAug 30 · 09:55P. Melnichuk3811115113Y. Shcherbak36971191
LAug 29 · 12:25P. Melnichuk28911171Y. Shcherbak3911611113
WAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk47141111113Y. Shcherbak35164781
LAug 26 · 18:25P. Melnichuk3811101071Y. Shcherbak4161212113
WAug 18 · 04:25P. Melnichuk4071111113Y. Shcherbak28114671
LAug 17 · 12:55P. Melnichuk186570Y. Shcherbak331111113
LAug 15 · 06:25P. Melnichuk30118831Y. Shcherbak3961111113
WAug 11 · 08:25P. Melnichuk4011711113Y. Shcherbak33611971
P. Melnichuk10
WOct 2 · 08:55O. Martynenko2.10141190P. Melnichuk1.671613113WOct 2 · 07:55P. Melnichuk1.8311811113O. Bolnyh1.83711531WOct 2 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk2.501711031P. Melnichuk1.5019911113LOct 2 · 05:25P. Melnichuk3.40101151162I. Fokin1.30123115113WOct 1 · 18:25M. Senyk4.50611491P. Melnichuk1.1711711113WOct 1 · 17:25O. Bolnyh1.6711881162P. Melnichuk2.10511119113LOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261WOct 1 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak1.61139941P. Melnichuk2.20111111113WOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko1.8012890P. Melnichuk1.911411113WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113
Y. Shcherbak10
LOct 2 · 09:55O. Bolnyh5.00911119113Y. Shcherbak1.1411891172WOct 2 · 08:25B. Pyrtyk2.3811581572Y. Shcherbak1.538111113113LOct 2 · 06:25I. Fokin1.281111133Y. Shcherbak3.5078110WOct 2 · 04:25O. Martynenko1.836111161Y. Shcherbak1.8311313113WOct 1 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak1.171111113O. Bolnyh4.507960LOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin1.25311118113Y. Shcherbak3.7511991182WOct 1 · 14:55O. Martynenko1.83106131142Y. Shcherbak1.831211117113LOct 1 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak1.61139941P. Melnichuk2.20111111113WOct 1 · 12:55M. Senyk6.5081080Y. Shcherbak1.101112113LSep 24 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak2.388990M. Treschetka1.531111113
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