TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Simon Kadavy vs Martin Vizek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411118118116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeSimon Kadavy to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Kadavy above · Martin Vizek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Simon Kadavy at 54.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Simon Kadavy 6–6 Martin Vizek Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5654.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1665 vs Vizek 1566
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 40% vs Vizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Vizek 30%
Kadavy
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy -1 · Vizek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kadavy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.80 / Vizek 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kadavy)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227354
Kadavy1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 32 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it66% 21 of 32
Vizek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 32 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy5wins
AwayVizek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy60%3 of 5
AwayVizek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy5Vizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kadavy3Vizek7n = 10Vizek took 7 of 10
S3Kadavy7Vizek3n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S4Kadavy7Vizek3n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyVizekK − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.5+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyVizekBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 537 vs 217 / 43250.3%50.2%270 / 537 vs 217 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.80/Vizek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 02:58S. Kadavy4391111123M. Vizek371179101
LAug 14 · 22:00S. Kadavy398911111M. Vizek4311118133
WJul 18 · 00:30S. Kadavy4112411143M. Vizek3910116121
WJun 20 · 02:30S. Kadavy3851111113M. Vizek24111571
LApr 12 · 15:30S. Kadavy371168121M. Vizek4261111143
LOct 22 · 16:30S. Kadavy4171151172M. Vizek49117119113
WOct 16 · 10:00S. Kadavy4312911113M. Vizek371011881
LSep 5 · 15:00S. Kadavy31791141M. Vizek3911116113
WJul 13 · 01:00S. Kadavy4211812113M. Vizek378111081
LMar 19 · 18:01S. Kadavy4411971162M. Vizek48911116113
S. Kadavy10
LOct 2 · 19:30D. Tuma1.83111110113S. Kadavy1.83791281WOct 2 · 18:00S. Kadavy1.731111113J. Pozarsky2.009880WSep 28 · 02:00S. Kadavy2.251111113K. Schopf1.578590LSep 28 · 01:00S. Kadavy2.2010450J. Louda1.611211113LSep 28 · 00:00M. Pikous1.2511137113S. Kadavy3.756111141LSep 27 · 22:30P. Pycha2.101271115113S. Kadavy1.67141191382WSep 12 · 03:30S. Kadavy1.7311119113M. Sopko2.00491171WSep 12 · 02:30M. Sopko1.8311711952S. Kadavy1.83511611113WSep 12 · 01:00V. Cermak2.00891111112S. Kadavy1.73111147133WSep 11 · 23:30S. Kadavy1.6114611123R. Krejci2.2012118101
M. Vizek10
WOct 2 · 19:00J. Pozarsky1.534790M. Vizek2.381111113LOct 2 · 18:30M. Vizek1.67111011872D. Tuma2.10712411113LOct 1 · 17:00M. Vizek1.8369111172K. Kapras1.83111176113WOct 1 · 16:00K. Kapras1.61611471M. Vizek2.2011411113LOct 1 · 15:00M. Sobisek1.911111113M. Vizek1.807860LOct 1 · 14:30M. Vizek1.676117101D. Tuma2.1011511123WOct 1 · 12:58P. Zmuda1.809750M. Vizek1.911111113LOct 1 · 12:30D. Tuma2.201611113M. Vizek1.6114880LOct 1 · 11:30M. Vizek1.806712111M. Volf1.91111110133LOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981
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