TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Chlad vs Jiri Matus 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411121012101210––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:43 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlad above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Petr Chlad at 54.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlad 13–4 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4354.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chlad
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-4 in 17
Chlad
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlad 1375 vs Matus 1422
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlad 0% vs Matus 60%
Matus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlad 50% vs Matus 70%
Matus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlad -5 · Matus +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Chlad) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlad 1.666 / Matus 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Chlad)-5.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224984
Chlad1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 37 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 21 of 30
Matus2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 27 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlad8wins
AwayMatus2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChlad leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChladn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMatus25%2 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlad2Matus8n = 10Matus took 8 of 10
S2Chlad8Matus2n = 10Chlad took 8 of 10
S3Chlad6Matus4n = 10Chlad took 6 of 10
S4Chlad8Matus1n = 9Chlad took 8 of 9
S5Chlad2Matus1n = 3Chlad took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChladMatusC − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.6+3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChladMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 288 vs 234 / 44848.3%52.2%139 / 288 vs 234 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChladChlad 1.67/Matus 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chlad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 07:10P. Chlad3811115113J. Matus28451181
WAug 2 · 21:13P. Chlad4481411113J. Matus351112481
WAug 2 · 19:40P. Chlad4681111163J. Matus321152141
WJul 4 · 16:40P. Chlad3521111113J. Matus27116731
LJul 4 · 16:10P. Chlad2561090J. Matus341112113
WJun 30 · 08:55P. Chlad46811312123J. Matus511191110102
WJun 30 · 07:45P. Chlad4791311143J. Matus3711113121
WJun 15 · 21:15P. Chlad4211911113J. Matus37911891
WJun 15 · 19:45P. Chlad48711118113J. Matus4811891192
LJun 7 · 08:45P. Chlad3871131162J. Matus47116118113
P. Chlad10
LOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad1.8091171182O. Vaclahovsky1.91119118113LOct 1 · 05:45P. Chlad1.579111113102D. Stefek2.25112915123LSep 28 · 08:55P. Chvojka1.611111113P. Chlad2.206560LSep 28 · 07:45O. Coufal2.2031111113P. Chlad1.61116681LSep 28 · 07:15P. Chvojka1.8011711113P. Chlad1.91911751WSep 28 · 06:15P. Chlad1.5031112113P. Jokiel2.501121041WSep 23 · 09:13P. Chlad1.801111113I. Jemelka1.916840WSep 23 · 08:15A. Strelec2.0010690P. Chlad1.731211113WSep 23 · 07:15P. Chlad1.73711311113I. Jemelka2.0011611982WSep 23 · 05:45J. Sindler1.6111119572P. Chlad2.20871111113
J. Matus10
WOct 1 · 07:15D. Stefek1.9151111742J. Matus1.80117711113WOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus2.10411811123O. Vaclahovsky1.67117113102WSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141LSep 29 · 07:45J. Matus1.678116121D. Stefek2.1011811143LSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113WSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122WSep 22 · 09:15J. Matus1.731111143A. Strelec2.0097120WSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481LSep 22 · 06:40A. Strelec1.83119811113J. Matus1.8391111982WSep 22 · 06:10J. Sevecek1.801011371J. Matus1.9112611113
Upcoming Matches
P. Chlad
J. Matus
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