TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Lukianevych vs Vadim Reva 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:43 and never touched: 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Vadim Reva @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Vadim Reva below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Vadim Reva at 55.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Lukianevych 59–50 Vadim Reva Vadim Reva has won 50 of their 109 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:4355.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Reva
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
59-50 in 109
Lukianevych
Wrong
gap of 9 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukianevych 1261 vs Reva 1281
Reva
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukianevych 20% vs Reva 60%
Reva
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukianevych 30% vs Reva 60%
Reva
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukianevych +1 · Reva +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Reva) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukianevych form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukianevych 2.20 / Reva 1.615
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Reva)-6.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223931
Lukianevych2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 26 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Reva1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 64 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it83% 48 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukianevych2wins
AwayReva8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderReva leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukianevychn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayReva87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukianevych2Reva8n = 10Reva took 8 of 10
S2Lukianevych4Reva6n = 10Reva took 6 of 10
S3Lukianevych4Reva6n = 10Reva took 6 of 10
S4Lukianevych2Reva5n = 7Reva took 5 of 7
S5Lukianevych1Reva2n = 3Reva took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukianevychRevaL − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.240.8−5.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukianevychRevaBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 409 vs 214 / 38849.6%55.2%203 / 409 vs 214 / 388Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RevaLukianevych 2.20/Reva 1.61
Hit
What we said
55.5%
Reva · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vadim Reva @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
0–3
Reva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 17:35V. Lukianevych199640V. Reva331111113
LSep 16 · 17:35V. Lukianevych206680V. Reva331111113
LSep 9 · 19:05V. Lukianevych165740V. Reva331111113
WSep 2 · 19:05V. Lukianevych51871411113V. Reva51111112982
LSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych51111199112V. Reva41151111133
LAug 30 · 14:55V. Lukianevych351241181V. Reva4214116113
WAug 27 · 17:35V. Lukianevych4514119113V. Reva381271181
LAug 19 · 15:35V. Lukianevych45811111052V. Reva50117912113
LAug 12 · 13:05V. Lukianevych32612771V. Reva43111011113
LAug 10 · 14:05V. Lukianevych38881391V. Reva44111111113
V. Lukianevych10
WOct 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych1.53121199113H. Buianover2.38108111182LOct 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.83118881A. Azarov1.8381111113LOct 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.2073140R. Serhyenko1.611111163LSep 22 · 18:35A. Sydorenko1.50111911113V. Lukianevych2.5081111592LSep 22 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.109640V. Reva1.671111113LSep 22 · 16:35V. Lukianevych2.1011711342R. Serhyenko1.67711711113WSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 22 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.5041111113H. Buianover2.50117541LSep 16 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.006680V. Reva1.731111113LSep 16 · 16:35V. Lukianevych1.73712111272V. Leonov2.001114110113
V. Reva10
WOct 1 · 16:05V. Reva2.1014911113A. Azarov1.671211681WOct 1 · 15:05V. Leonov1.25106111192V. Reva3.75121169113LOct 1 · 13:35V. Reva1.73711014102H. Buianover2.001181112123LSep 22 · 19:35V. Reva1.83111215482H. Buianover1.8313101311113WSep 22 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.109640V. Reva1.671111113WSep 22 · 15:35A. Sydorenko1.5771090V. Reva2.251112113WSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva2.00111014113R. Serhyenko1.735121261LSep 22 · 13:35M. Karelov2.0011146123V. Reva1.7391211101LSep 16 · 19:35V. Reva1.6710411111M. Karelov2.1012116133WSep 16 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.006680V. Reva1.731111113
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