TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Lukianevych vs Viktor Leonov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11711871112141012
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:29 and never touched: 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Valerii Lukianevych @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Viktor Leonov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 103 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 55.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Lukianevych 29–15 Viktor Leonov Viktor Leonov has won 15 of their 44 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:2955.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lukianevych
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-15 in 44
Lukianevych
Wrong
gap of 14 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukianevych 1247 vs Leonov 1281
Leonov
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukianevych 20% vs Leonov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukianevych 30% vs Leonov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukianevych -1 · Leonov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Lukianevych) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukianevych 1.666 / Leonov 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Lukianevych)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223581
Lukianevych1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 71 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it84% 52 of 62
Leonov2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 9 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukianevych9wins
AwayLeonov1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukianevych100%7 of 7
AwayLeonov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukianevych7Leonov3n = 10Lukianevych took 7 of 10
S2Lukianevych5Leonov5n = 10split evenly
S3Lukianevych8Leonov2n = 10Lukianevych took 8 of 10
S4Lukianevych6Leonov1n = 7Lukianevych took 6 of 7
S5Lukianevych3Leonov1n = 4Lukianevych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukianevychLeonovLukianevych − LeonovBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.534.2+8.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukianevychLeonovBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 410 vs 82 / 14149.5%58.2%203 / 410 vs 82 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychLukianevych 1.67/Leonov 2.10
Miss
What we said
55%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Valerii Lukianevych @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 16:35V. Lukianevych49712111272V. Leonov471114110113
WSep 9 · 12:35V. Lukianevych44111111113V. Leonov32913371
WSep 2 · 16:35V. Lukianevych381116113V. Leonov2761470
WAug 30 · 13:25V. Lukianevych331111113V. Leonov128310
WAug 19 · 12:35V. Lukianevych481151110113V. Leonov4281161252
WAug 10 · 17:05V. Lukianevych48511813113V. Leonov43119111112
WAug 5 · 12:35V. Lukianevych381116113V. Leonov3191480
WJul 28 · 18:05V. Lukianevych3741111113V. Leonov31119651
WJul 23 · 12:35V. Lukianevych49119711113V. Leonov4161111672
WJul 14 · 17:35V. Lukianevych4111811113V. Leonov36911881
V. Lukianevych10
LOct 1 · 17:05V. Lukianevych2.2071050V. Reva1.611112113WOct 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych1.53121199113H. Buianover2.38108111182LOct 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.83118881A. Azarov1.8381111113LOct 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.2073140R. Serhyenko1.611111163LSep 22 · 18:35A. Sydorenko1.50111911113V. Lukianevych2.5081111592LSep 22 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.109640V. Reva1.671111113LSep 22 · 16:35V. Lukianevych2.1011711342R. Serhyenko1.67711711113WSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 22 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.5041111113H. Buianover2.50117541LSep 16 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.006680V. Reva1.731111113
V. Leonov10
WOct 1 · 17:35V. Leonov1.28111165123H. Buianover3.50741111102LOct 1 · 16:35V. Leonov2.252101181R. Serhyenko1.5711126113LOct 1 · 15:05V. Leonov1.25106111192V. Reva3.75121169113LOct 1 · 13:05V. Leonov1.801544101A. Azarov1.91131111123LSep 24 · 18:35A. Azarov1.9191611113V. Leonov1.801114591WSep 24 · 17:35V. Leonov2.25711811113D. Boltenkov1.5711611982LSep 24 · 16:35V. Leonov1.531264111V. Sydorenko2.38101111133LSep 24 · 15:05V. Leonov2.20841161F. Chashchin1.6111119113LSep 24 · 13:05V. Leonov2.2011911472V. Slabyshev1.61811911113WSep 17 · 18:35A. Azarov1.61108111452V. Leonov2.201211812113
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