TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Simecek vs Marek Holub 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119311211114411
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Simecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jakub Simecek @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingJakub Simecek above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 77 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Jakub Simecek at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simecek 2–3 Marek Holub Jakub Simecek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:2854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Simecek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simecek 1676 vs Holub 1584
Simecek
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simecek 80% vs Holub 60%
Simecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simecek 80% vs Holub 50%
Simecek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simecek +2 · Holub +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Simecek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimecek 1.80 / Holub 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Simecek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216918
Simecek1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 75 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it71% 49 of 69
Holub1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSimecek2wins
AwayHolub3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderHolub leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimecek33.3%1 of 3
AwayHolubn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simecek3Holub2n = 5Simecek took 3 of 5
S2Simecek1Holub4n = 5Holub took 4 of 5
S3Simecek3Holub2n = 5Simecek took 3 of 5
S4Simecek2Holub3n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSimecekHolubS − HBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.643.4−3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimecekHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 283 vs 160 / 34554.1%46.4%153 / 283 vs 160 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SimecekSimecek 1.80/Holub 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Simecek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Simecek @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 28 · 06:00J. Simecek4491311472M. Holub521111811113
LAug 14 · 16:59J. Simecek321141161M. Holub4271113113
WAug 14 · 14:00J. Simecek3911611113M. Holub32911391
LAug 5 · 20:58J. Simecek28116831M. Holub3741111113
WAug 5 · 18:00J. Simecek55891115123M. Holub541111913102
J. Simecek10
WSep 30 · 14:30J. Holubec1.61111110772J. Simecek2.20491211113WSep 28 · 13:28D. Langer1.73128161162J. Simecek2.001011185113LSep 28 · 12:00D. Langer2.1011117113J. Simecek1.67841191WSep 28 · 11:00L. Martinak1.7379100J. Simecek2.001111123WSep 28 · 10:30J. Simecek1.6111116113J. Schwan2.20781171WSep 20 · 13:30J. Simecek1.5241111123R. Skacelik2.351176101WSep 20 · 12:00J. Simecek1.731112113D. Langer2.0091090WSep 20 · 11:30J. Levicky2.38115781J. Simecek1.5351111113LSep 20 · 10:00J. Simecek1.44911321R. Skacelik2.6311511113WSep 19 · 09:30A. Walek1.90111171192J. Simecek1.80913117113
M. Holub10
WSep 30 · 16:00M. Holub1.80911119133J. Holubec1.91119811112WSep 30 · 14:00M. Holub1.73311511113D. Unzeitig2.0011511792LSep 28 · 21:30D. Szotek1.67111112113M. Holub2.109131081WSep 28 · 20:30M. Holub2.631311113T. Kypr1.4411950LSep 28 · 19:00M. Holub2.001316681D. Szotek1.73151411113WSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.5311124652M. Holub2.388101111113WSep 23 · 20:58Z. Pagac1.61911831M. Holub2.2011711113LSep 23 · 20:30L. Kern1.5711118113M. Holub2.25941191LSep 23 · 19:30M. Holub2.10911681R. Hudeczek1.6711511113LSep 23 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.611361310123M. Holub2.2011111112102
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