TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Gireth vs Michal Jezek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119811119711811
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timePavel Gireth to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Gireth above · Michal Jezek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Pavel Gireth at 70.4%
96 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Gireth 7–3 Michal Jezek Michal Jezek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2170.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gireth
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Gireth
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gireth 1832 vs Jezek 1761
Gireth
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gireth 80% vs Jezek 60%
Gireth
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gireth 70% vs Jezek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gireth -1 · Jezek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Gireth) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jezek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGireth 1.363 / Jezek 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Gireth)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216852
Gireth1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Jezek3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 47 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back41% 19 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGireth7wins
AwayJezek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGireth leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGireth100%5 of 5
AwayJezek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gireth5Jezek5n = 10split evenly
S2Gireth6Jezek4n = 10Gireth took 6 of 10
S3Gireth8Jezek2n = 10Gireth took 8 of 10
S4Gireth6Jezek1n = 7Gireth took 6 of 7
S5Gireth2Jezek3n = 5Jezek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGirethJezekG − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.435.4+4.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGirethJezekBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 195 vs 177 / 35154.9%50.4%107 / 195 vs 177 / 351Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GirethGireth 1.36/Jezek 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Gireth · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jezek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:00P. Gireth331111113M. Jezek238690
WAug 26 · 14:00P. Gireth44111111113M. Jezek39913981
WJan 22 · 18:03P. Gireth49117911113M. Jezek4191111642
WJan 22 · 17:30P. Gireth3961111113M. Jezek32116961
WJul 10 · 17:30P. Gireth331111113M. Jezek155190
WJul 10 · 14:00P. Gireth331111113M. Jezek167630
WJul 3 · 16:30P. Gireth46511118113M. Jezek4211791142
LJun 9 · 15:00P. Gireth4051151362M. Jezek501161111113
LJun 3 · 17:00P. Gireth3839111142M. Jezek48111178113
LJun 3 · 14:00P. Gireth3938111162M. Jezek48111169113
P. Gireth10
WSep 30 · 16:30R. Urbaniec3.759410P. Gireth1.251111113LSep 30 · 14:30M. Huk3.75114611113P. Gireth1.2551111562WSep 23 · 17:30P. Gireth1.60911119113P. Bradach2.2011781172WSep 23 · 16:30P. Bradach2.00128721P. Gireth1.73101111113WSep 23 · 15:30P. Gireth1.8371211113F. Wolf1.831110551WSep 23 · 14:30O. Kolisnyk3.50147651P. Gireth1.28121111113LSep 10 · 17:29J. Kanera1.9111116113P. Gireth1.80851171LSep 10 · 16:30P. Gireth1.53711851J. Kanera2.3811511113WSep 10 · 15:00P. Gireth1.36127117113J. Kycelt3.00101181142WSep 10 · 14:00O. Kolisnyk3.005180P. Gireth1.361111113
M. Jezek10
WSep 30 · 16:00M. Jezek1.83119119113M. Huk1.8381161172LSep 30 · 14:00M. Jezek1.4431370R. Urbaniec2.631115113WSep 24 · 17:30J. Nesnera1.4511911562M. Jezek2.60911711113WSep 24 · 16:30M. Jezek2.0081111133J. Ruzicka1.731167111WSep 24 · 15:00M. Jezek2.756111112113J. Nesnera1.40111381062LSep 24 · 14:00J. Kanera1.57111187113M. Jezek2.2599111132WSep 16 · 17:30M. Jezek1.501111113R. Urbaniec2.405660WSep 16 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6311841272M. Jezek1.449111110113LSep 16 · 15:30M. Jezek1.6711851152O. Kolisnyk2.10911116113WSep 16 · 14:30V. Nohejl1.91621151M. Jezek1.8011118113
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