TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Jezek vs Radim Urbaniec 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111315711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Jezek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Jezek above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 60 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Michal Jezek at 65.7%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Jezek 5–4 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5765.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jezek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jezek 1773 vs Urbaniec 1809
Urbaniec
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jezek 80% vs Urbaniec 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jezek 70% vs Urbaniec 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jezek +3 · Urbaniec +2
Jezek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Jezek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJezek 1.444 / Urbaniec 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Jezek)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216059
Jezek1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 24)
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 19 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Urbaniec2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 187 of 465
Down 0–1, comes back23% 60 of 260
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeJezek5wins
AwayUrbaniec4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderJezek leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJezek50%3 of 6
AwayUrbaniec33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jezek6Urbaniec3n = 9Jezek took 6 of 9
S2Jezek5Urbaniec4n = 9Jezek took 5 of 9
S3Jezek6Urbaniec3n = 9Jezek took 6 of 9
S4Jezek2Urbaniec5n = 7Urbaniec took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricJezekUrbaniecJ − UBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match38.335.3+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJezekUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 351 vs 682 / 133150.7%51.2%178 / 351 vs 682 / 1331Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JezekJezek 1.44/Urbaniec 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Jezek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 16 · 17:30M. Jezek331111113R. Urbaniec175660
WSep 16 · 16:30M. Jezek529111110113R. Urbaniec4211841272
WSep 9 · 17:00M. Jezek341111123R. Urbaniec2156100
WSep 9 · 14:00M. Jezek4112711113R. Urbaniec341011761
WAug 11 · 14:00M. Jezek4291111113R. Urbaniec34119771
LJul 15 · 16:00M. Jezek35118791R. Urbaniec3741111113
LJun 17 · 17:30M. Jezek28351191R. Urbaniec4211119113
LJun 17 · 14:00M. Jezek43111174102R. Urbaniec48861111123
LJun 12 · 15:30M. Jezek371171091R. Urbaniec4391112113
M. Jezek10
WSep 24 · 17:30J. Nesnera1.4511911562M. Jezek2.60911711113WSep 24 · 16:30M. Jezek2.0081111133J. Ruzicka1.731167111WSep 24 · 15:00M. Jezek2.756111112113J. Nesnera1.40111381062LSep 24 · 14:00J. Kanera1.57111187113M. Jezek2.2599111132WSep 16 · 17:30M. Jezek1.501111113R. Urbaniec2.405660WSep 16 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6311841272M. Jezek1.449111110113LSep 16 · 15:30M. Jezek1.6711851152O. Kolisnyk2.10911116113WSep 16 · 14:30V. Nohejl1.91621151M. Jezek1.8011118113WSep 9 · 17:00R. Urbaniec1.8356100M. Jezek1.831111123LSep 9 · 16:30M. Jezek1.915260J. Ruzicka1.801111113
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 30 · 09:30J. Kycelt1.36119261R. Urbaniec3.0041111113WSep 30 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.38911512113J. Vales1.53118111082LSep 30 · 07:00R. Urbaniec3.00911591J. Kycelt1.3611811113WSep 30 · 06:00E. Mares1.61139711132R. Urbaniec2.201111118153WSep 29 · 17:01F. Pusch2.7586100R. Urbaniec1.401111123LSep 29 · 16:00O. Svacha2.2011119113R. Urbaniec1.61851181LSep 29 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.53911157113R. Urbaniec2.38117131192LSep 16 · 17:30M. Jezek1.501111113R. Urbaniec2.405660LSep 16 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6311841272M. Jezek1.449111110113LSep 9 · 17:00R. Urbaniec1.8356100M. Jezek1.831111123
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