TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Kolesnik vs Maksym Denysenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119117911911119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Kolesnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Kolesnik above · Maksym Denysenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Kolesnik at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kolesnik 7–4 Maksym Denysenko Maksym Denysenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Kolesnik beat Denysenko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:15What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Denysenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Kolesnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnik 1513 vs Denysenko 1619
Denysenko
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnik 40% vs Denysenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnik 40% vs Denysenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnik -2 · Denysenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolesnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Denysenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnik 1.83 / Denysenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolesnik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13202080
Kolesnik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Denysenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnik6wins
AwayDenysenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolesnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnik66.7%4 of 6
AwayDenysenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnik6Denysenko4n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S2Kolesnik4Denysenko6n = 10Denysenko took 6 of 10
S3Kolesnik4Denysenko6n = 10Denysenko took 6 of 10
S4Kolesnik5Denysenko2n = 7Kolesnik took 5 of 7
S5Kolesnik2Denysenko1n = 3Kolesnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnikDenysenkoK − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.836.8+3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnikDenysenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 326 vs 41 / 8254.6%50%178 / 326 vs 41 / 82Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnikKolesnik 1.83/Denysenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolesnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolesnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 14:00P. Kolesnik4211911113M. Denysenko26611541
WAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik331111113M. Denysenko215790
LAug 28 · 08:00P. Kolesnik391110991M. Denysenko4281211113
LAug 27 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2791170M. Denysenko351113113
WAug 26 · 15:00P. Kolesnik54131411163M. Denysenko4815127141
WAug 21 · 05:00P. Kolesnik3811511113M. Denysenko28411491
LAug 20 · 16:30P. Kolesnik4211114972M. Denysenko46761111113
WAug 14 · 12:00P. Kolesnik531111911113M. Denysenko4471311582
LAug 13 · 15:30P. Kolesnik203980M. Denysenko331111113
WJul 16 · 07:30P. Kolesnik50914511113M. Denysenko45111211742
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 26 · 16:30P. Kolesnik3.001111951O. Torianyk1.361371183LSep 26 · 15:30P. Kolesnik2.389870M. Levytskii1.53111183WSep 26 · 14:00P. Kolesnik1.9111911113M. Denysenko1.80611541LSep 26 · 13:00P. Kolesnik1.9172120O. Tiutiunnyk1.801111143WSep 20 · 10:00P. Kolesnik1.7313411113D. Tsys2.001111511WSep 20 · 09:00N. Priadko2.2538100P. Kolesnik1.571111123LSep 20 · 07:30O. Torianyk1.441111113P. Kolesnik2.638880LSep 20 · 06:00S. Sideltsev1.57121108113P. Kolesnik2.25109111192WSep 20 · 05:00D. Tsys1.831155101P. Kolesnik1.8391111123LSep 19 · 17:35M. Levytskii1.50118118113P. Kolesnik2.50911811102
M. Denysenko10
LSep 26 · 17:10M. Denysenko2.07121171172M. Levytskii1.67144114113WSep 26 · 16:00M. Denysenko1.9191111663O. Tiutiunnyk1.8011871152WSep 26 · 15:00O. Torianyk1.80111310752M. Denysenko1.904111211103LSep 26 · 14:00P. Kolesnik1.9111911113M. Denysenko1.80611541LSep 26 · 12:30M. Levytskii1.73111110113M. Denysenko2.00481281LAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik2.201111113M. Denysenko1.615790WAug 28 · 09:30S. Sideltsev3.251011971M. Denysenko1.3312911113WAug 28 · 08:00M. Denysenko1.6181211113P. Kolesnik2.201110991LAug 28 · 06:30M. Denysenko1.80113881O. Torianyk1.9161111113WAug 28 · 05:00M. Denysenko1.5012117113M. Pohorilyi2.501081191
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