TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Strelec vs Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511117118119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Adam Strelec at 57.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 1–0 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Strelec beat Jnr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:46What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1388 vs Jnr 1337
Strelec
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 40% vs Jnr 20%
Strelec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 40% vs Jnr 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec -1 · Jnr -3
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 2.63 / Jnr 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Jnr)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13200182
Strelec2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 36 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Jnr1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 48 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it69% 33 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStrelec1wins
AwayJnr0wins
Strelec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStrelecJnrS − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.028.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 249 vs 145 / 27949.4%52%123 / 249 vs 145 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrStrelec 2.63/Jnr 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 26 · 11:10A. Strelec361411113J. Jnr2812970
A. Strelec10
LSep 26 · 11:40O. Vaclahovsky1.731091111113A. Strelec2.0012117872WSep 26 · 11:10J. Jnr1.7312970A. Strelec2.001411113LSep 26 · 10:10A. Strelec1.835470P. Chvojka1.831111113WSep 23 · 08:43J. Sindler1.73111061152A. Strelec2.00512118113LSep 23 · 08:15A. Strelec2.0010690P. Chlad1.731211113LSep 23 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7361111153A. Strelec2.001138131LSep 23 · 06:15I. Jemelka1.7312812113A. Strelec2.0010111091LSep 22 · 09:15J. Matus1.731111143A. Strelec2.0097120WSep 22 · 07:40A. Strelec1.531311113J. Sevecek2.3811470WSep 22 · 06:40A. Strelec1.83119811113J. Matus1.8391111982
J. Jnr10
LSep 26 · 12:10P. Chvojka1.801111912113J. Jnr1.9158111492LSep 26 · 11:10J. Jnr1.7312970A. Strelec2.001411113LSep 26 · 09:40O. Vaclahovsky2.0013115113J. Jnr1.731191161WSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113LSep 25 · 11:40J. Jnr1.838580P. Sturma1.831111113LSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113WSep 25 · 09:40J. Jnr1.361111113Z. Chovancik3.006850WSep 19 · 16:36J. Jnr1.361111113P. Sturma3.007880LSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192LSep 19 · 15:10P. Chvojka1.91971111113J. Jnr1.8011117852
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