TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Tibor Spanik 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181151012411
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 60.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 2–8 Tibor Spanik Krystian Kolodziej has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Spanik
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1786 vs Spanik 1929
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 60% vs Spanik 40%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 40% vs Spanik 70%
Spanik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +1 · Spanik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 2.20 / Spanik 1.61
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Spanik)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13200179
Kolodziej2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 66 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 71
Spanik1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 149 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej2wins
AwaySpanik8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej66.7%2 of 3
AwaySpanik100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S2Kolodziej4Spanik6n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S3Kolodziej3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S4Kolodziej2Spanik3n = 5Spanik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejSpanikK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.738.0−5.3per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime1269 / 1894 vs 257 / 46267%55.6%1269 / 1894 vs 257 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikKolodziej 2.20/Spanik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 11:15K. Kolodziej44811111042T. Spanik47118512113
LSep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej401511951T. Spanik4217311113
LSep 26 · 14:35K. Kolodziej238960T. Spanik331111113
LSep 8 · 09:00K. Kolodziej2451180T. Spanik351113113
WAug 18 · 10:50K. Kolodziej4011711113T. Spanik34911861
LAug 17 · 10:50K. Kolodziej165560T. Spanik331111113
LAug 7 · 10:25K. Kolodziej44118111132T. Spanik52811139113
LAug 3 · 15:25K. Kolodziej2112450T. Spanik361411113
WAug 3 · 11:45K. Kolodziej361112133T. Spanik25410110
LAug 2 · 14:35K. Kolodziej3910117111T. Spanik4312711133
K. Kolodziej10
WSep 27 · 10:00K. Petas1.80711891K. Kolodziej1.9111911113LSep 27 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.8391390M. Miastowski1.831115113LSep 27 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.73911911112G. Adamiak2.00113114133WSep 27 · 06:55K. Kolodziej2.501211710113M. Jadczyk1.50101111282WSep 27 · 05:40K. Kolodziej1.67111112113M. Miastowski2.10971491WSep 27 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.831311113K. Petas1.8311820LSep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej2.251511951T. Spanik1.5717311113LSep 26 · 14:35T. Spanik1.611111113K. Kolodziej2.208960LSep 26 · 13:20K. Kolodziej1.8081160K. Petas1.911113113LSep 26 · 12:05M. Miastowski2.20971111113K. Kolodziej1.6111116572
T. Spanik10
WSep 27 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.009950T. Spanik1.731111113LSep 27 · 09:00K. Petas2.001112113T. Spanik1.7371040LSep 27 · 08:05M. Miastowski2.10111614153T. Spanik1.6781812131WSep 27 · 07:20G. Adamiak2.38911391T. Spanik1.5311911113LSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas1.8361211113T. Spanik1.831110831WSep 27 · 04:30M. Jadczyk2.50111091182T. Spanik1.50912117113WSep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej2.251511951T. Spanik1.5717311113WSep 26 · 14:35T. Spanik1.611111113K. Kolodziej2.208960WSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691WSep 26 · 11:40T. Spanik1.7314511113A. Abbasi2.001211791
Upcoming Matches
K. Kolodziej
T. Spanik
Sep 27 · 13:20T. Spanik1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Sep 27 · 14:10T. Spanik1.57G. Adamiak2.25—Sep 28 · 03:00T. Spanik1.67K. Petas2.10—Sep 28 · 04:30T. Spanik1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 28 · 07:20T. Spanik—G. Felkel——Sep 28 · 08:05T. Spanik—P. Chodorski——Sep 28 · 09:00T. Spanik1.80P. Chodorski1.91—Sep 28 · 10:25T. Spanik1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 28 · 11:15T. Spanik1.67K. Petas2.10—Sep 28 · 13:20T. Spanik2.25J. Kosowski1.57—
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