TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tibor Spanik vs Maksymilian Miastowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111412116119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 57.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 12–6 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Spanik
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1853 vs Miastowski 1847
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 60% vs Miastowski 20%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 50% vs Miastowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +1 · Miastowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Spanik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.67 / Miastowski 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Spanik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13194585
Spanik1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 148 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it74% 105 of 142
Miastowski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 82 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik6wins
AwayMiastowski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik75%6 of 8
AwayMiastowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik8Miastowski2n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S2Spanik7Miastowski3n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Spanik4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S4Spanik2Miastowski5n = 7Miastowski took 5 of 7
S5Spanik2Miastowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikMiastowskiS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.1+2.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 452 vs 577 / 111455.3%51.8%250 / 452 vs 577 / 1114Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.67/Miastowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 04:55T. Spanik46111113113M. Miastowski37871571
LSep 15 · 05:15T. Spanik481199191M. Miastowski5181111213
WAug 30 · 13:20T. Spanik351113113M. Miastowski2071120
LAug 30 · 05:15T. Spanik2561270M. Miastowski361114113
WAug 29 · 13:20T. Spanik44111156113M. Miastowski4589111162
WAug 29 · 07:45T. Spanik3812114113M. Miastowski371071191
LJul 19 · 09:00T. Spanik4351212682M. Miastowski5311101011113
WJul 19 · 06:30T. Spanik331111113M. Miastowski216780
WJul 18 · 09:00T. Spanik51111199113M. Miastowski3948111152
LJul 18 · 07:45T. Spanik4211611952M. Miastowski42711211113
T. Spanik10
WSep 26 · 11:40T. Spanik1.7314511113A. Abbasi2.001211791LSep 26 · 10:00T. Spanik1.5711119562G. Adamiak2.25561111113WSep 26 · 09:00T. Spanik1.83115811113K. Petas1.8351111762LSep 26 · 08:05T. Spanik1.83156111192K. Petas1.831311138113WSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.50891191T. Spanik1.5011119113WSep 26 · 04:55T. Spanik1.57111113113M. Miastowski2.25871571LSep 26 · 03:45T. Spanik1.678890M. Jadczyk2.101111113LSep 15 · 14:35M. Olejnik1.73131412113T. Spanik2.0015121071LSep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67111191262J. Braun2.101391110113
M. Miastowski10
LSep 26 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.25711512113M. Miastowski1.57119111042WSep 26 · 12:05M. Miastowski2.20971111113K. Kolodziej1.6111116572LSep 26 · 10:25M. Miastowski1.836111051K. Petas1.8311712113LSep 26 · 09:40A. Abbasi1.53911118133M. Miastowski2.38116611112LSep 26 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.10113411113M. Miastowski1.6761111742LSep 26 · 07:20M. Miastowski2.10871551K. Petas1.67111113113WSep 26 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.441111514122M. Miastowski2.63771116143LSep 26 · 04:55T. Spanik1.57111113113M. Miastowski2.25871571LSep 26 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.28111210113M. Miastowski3.509101271WSep 25 · 15:45M. Miastowski1.831111113J. Kuzmicz1.839480
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