TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maksymilian Miastowski vs Krystian Kolodziej 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911711116115117
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:06 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 55.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 10–9 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolodziej
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1829 vs Kolodziej 1780
Miastowski
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 20% vs Kolodziej 40%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 30% vs Kolodziej 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski -4 · Kolodziej -2
Miastowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 2.20 / Kolodziej 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kolodziej)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13193776
Miastowski2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 82 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 63
Kolodziej1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 442 of 581
Up 2–0, closes it98% 278 of 285
Up 1–0, closes it87% 364 of 417
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski7wins
AwayKolodziej3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski100%3 of 3
AwayKolodziej42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski3Kolodziej7n = 10Kolodziej took 7 of 10
S2Miastowski7Kolodziej3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S3Miastowski8Kolodziej2n = 10Miastowski took 8 of 10
S4Miastowski4Kolodziej2n = 6Miastowski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiKolodziejM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.3+2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime577 / 1114 vs 1265 / 188351.8%67.2%577 / 1114 vs 1265 / 1883Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejMiastowski 2.20/Kolodziej 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 10:00M. Miastowski351112123K. Kolodziej27710100
WJun 3 · 17:00M. Miastowski3911311143K. Kolodziej388117121
WJun 2 · 19:00M. Miastowski44101112113K. Kolodziej371271081
WJun 1 · 15:55M. Miastowski4071111113K. Kolodziej32118581
LMay 12 · 20:10M. Miastowski248790K. Kolodziej331111113
WMay 11 · 20:35M. Miastowski4691111153K. Kolodziej411198131
WMar 11 · 18:00M. Miastowski331111113K. Kolodziej141490
WMar 9 · 21:35M. Miastowski46511118113K. Kolodziej3911561162
LAug 14 · 01:30M. Miastowski197840K. Kolodziej331111113
LAug 13 · 23:00M. Miastowski42101111552K. Kolodziej49128711113
M. Miastowski10
LSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691LSep 26 · 10:25M. Miastowski1.836111051K. Petas1.8311712113LSep 26 · 09:40A. Abbasi1.53911118133M. Miastowski2.38116611112LSep 26 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.10113411113M. Miastowski1.6761111742LSep 26 · 07:20M. Miastowski2.10871551K. Petas1.67111113113WSep 26 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.441111514122M. Miastowski2.63771116143LSep 26 · 04:55T. Spanik1.57111113113M. Miastowski2.25871571LSep 26 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.28111210113M. Miastowski3.509101271WSep 25 · 15:45M. Miastowski1.831111113J. Kuzmicz1.839480WSep 25 · 14:10M. Miastowski2.381111113M. Jadczyk1.539980
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 26 · 10:50A. Abbasi1.671111123K. Kolodziej2.1077100LSep 26 · 09:20G. Adamiak1.9111116113K. Kolodziej1.80671161WSep 25 · 15:25P. David1.363770K. Kolodziej3.001111113LSep 25 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz1.831111113K. Kolodziej1.837980WSep 25 · 12:30K. Wloczko2.2079111172K. Kolodziej1.61111168113WSep 25 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.447590K. Kolodziej2.631111113LSep 25 · 10:00M. Miastowski1.671112123K. Kolodziej2.10710100LSep 24 · 14:35P. David1.308111011113K. Kolodziej3.4011412782LSep 24 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.504111161J. Zandecki1.5011138113LSep 24 · 12:05A. Grela1.4411118113K. Kolodziej2.63991151
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