TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tibor Spanik vs Kacper Petas 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
15136111113118911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Petas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 108 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Kacper Petas at 54.0%
108 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 16–5 Kacper Petas Kacper Petas has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Petas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Spanik
Wrong
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1851 vs Petas 1890
Petas
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 40% vs Petas 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 40% vs Petas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +2 · Petas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.83 / Petas 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spanik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13194573
Spanik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Petas1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik7wins
AwayPetas3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik100%4 of 4
AwayPetas50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Petas6n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S2Spanik5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S3Spanik5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S4Spanik5Petas3n = 8Spanik took 5 of 8
S5Spanik5Petas1n = 6Spanik took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikPetasS − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.540.3+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 447 vs 674 / 127955.3%52.7%247 / 447 vs 674 / 1279Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.83/Petas 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 09:20T. Spanik50118119113K. Petas3441121162
WSep 14 · 04:10T. Spanik341112113K. Petas2791080
LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik531110111562K. Petas551312613113
WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik50811911113K. Petas4311811762
LJun 21 · 12:05T. Spanik31711761K. Petas4211911113
WJun 21 · 09:40T. Spanik49711911113K. Petas4011711652
WJun 21 · 07:20T. Spanik49911117113K. Petas4411491192
LJun 21 · 04:55T. Spanik186750K. Petas331111113
WJun 20 · 11:15T. Spanik4412813113K. Petas4110111191
WJun 20 · 09:00T. Spanik47118611113K. Petas4491111852
T. Spanik10
WSep 26 · 09:00T. Spanik1.83115811113K. Petas1.8351111762WSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.50891191T. Spanik1.5011119113WSep 26 · 04:55T. Spanik1.57111113113M. Miastowski2.25871571LSep 26 · 03:45T. Spanik1.678890M. Jadczyk2.101111113LSep 15 · 14:35M. Olejnik1.73131412113T. Spanik2.0015121071LSep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67111191262J. Braun2.101391110113LSep 15 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.00111158113T. Spanik1.7388111152WSep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00101090T. Spanik1.731212113WSep 15 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.2511168111T. Spanik1.57131411133
K. Petas10
LSep 26 · 09:00T. Spanik1.83115811113K. Petas1.8351111762WSep 26 · 07:20M. Miastowski2.10871551K. Petas1.67111113113LSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650LSep 26 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.7361111113K. Petas2.00118971WSep 26 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.7546140K. Petas1.251111163LSep 14 · 13:45K. Petas2.25214471M. Jadczyk1.57111211113LSep 14 · 12:30K. Petas1.6111971162K. Strowski2.20511118113WSep 14 · 11:15K. Petas1.5311116123K. Wloczko2.384711101WSep 14 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.9141111662K. Petas1.80119811113LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas1.8341121162T. Spanik1.83118119113
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