TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Petas vs Tibor Spanik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111210118113––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Petas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 72 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Kacper Petas at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 6–17 Tibor Spanik Kacper Petas has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 20h before this match
Spanik beat Petas 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:09What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Spanik
Wrong
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1958 vs Spanik 1890
Petas
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 80% vs Spanik 100%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 70% vs Spanik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas -1 · Spanik +5
Spanik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 1.83 / Spanik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spanik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13200779
Petas1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Spanik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas4wins
AwaySpanik6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas50%3 of 6
AwaySpanik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas6Spanik4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S2Petas5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S3Petas6Spanik4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S4Petas3Spanik5n = 8Spanik took 5 of 8
S5Petas2Spanik5n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasSpanikP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.443.2−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime680 / 1287 vs 254 / 45652.8%55.7%680 / 1287 vs 254 / 456Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikPetas 1.83/Spanik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 09:00K. Petas4051111762T. Spanik46115811113
WSep 26 · 08:05K. Petas561311138113T. Spanik52156111192
LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas3441121162T. Spanik50118119113
LSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2791080T. Spanik341112113
WAug 31 · 12:30K. Petas551312613113T. Spanik531110111562
LAug 31 · 08:30K. Petas4311811762T. Spanik50811911113
WJun 21 · 12:05K. Petas4211911113T. Spanik31711761
LJun 21 · 09:40K. Petas4011711652T. Spanik49711911113
LJun 21 · 07:20K. Petas4411491192T. Spanik49911117113
WJun 21 · 04:55K. Petas331111113T. Spanik186750
K. Petas10
LSep 27 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.831311113K. Petas1.8311820WSep 27 · 03:25K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.755320WSep 26 · 14:10A. Abbasi2.001191051K. Petas1.7391112113WSep 26 · 13:20K. Kolodziej1.8081160K. Petas1.911113113WSep 26 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.7551191182K. Petas1.25116119113WSep 26 · 10:25M. Miastowski1.836111051K. Petas1.8311712113LSep 26 · 09:00T. Spanik1.83115811113K. Petas1.8351111762WSep 26 · 08:05T. Spanik1.83156111192K. Petas1.831311138113WSep 26 · 07:20M. Miastowski2.10871551K. Petas1.67111113113LSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650
T. Spanik10
WSep 27 · 04:30M. Jadczyk2.50111091182T. Spanik1.50912117113WSep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej2.251511951T. Spanik1.5717311113WSep 26 · 14:35T. Spanik1.611111113K. Kolodziej2.208960WSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691WSep 26 · 11:40T. Spanik1.7314511113A. Abbasi2.001211791LSep 26 · 10:00T. Spanik1.5711119562G. Adamiak2.25561111113WSep 26 · 09:00T. Spanik1.83115811113K. Petas1.8351111762LSep 26 · 08:05T. Spanik1.83156111192K. Petas1.831311138113WSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.50891191T. Spanik1.5011119113
Upcoming Matches
K. Petas
T. Spanik
Sep 27 · 07:20T. Spanik1.53G. Adamiak2.38—Sep 27 · 08:05T. Spanik1.67M. Miastowski2.10—Sep 27 · 09:00T. Spanik1.73K. Petas2.00—Sep 27 · 10:25T. Spanik1.61M. Jadczyk2.20—Sep 27 · 11:15T. Spanik1.57K. Kolodziej2.25—Sep 27 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67M. Miastowski2.10—Sep 27 · 14:10T. Spanik1.53G. Adamiak2.38—
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