TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tibor Spanik vs Krystian Kolodziej 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119116––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Point 39 set 2, 11-9 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 62.9%
39 points drawn · the score is 17 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tibor Spanik 5–2 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:05What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Spanik
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1875 vs Kolodziej 1755
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 60% vs Kolodziej 20%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 60% vs Kolodziej 30%
Spanik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +2 · Kolodziej -4
Kolodziej
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.61 / Kolodziej 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Spanik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13193774
Spanik1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 148 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it74% 105 of 142
Kolodziej2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 67 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSpanik5wins
AwayKolodziej2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderSpanik leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik100%4 of 4
AwayKolodziej66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Kolodziej3n = 7Spanik took 4 of 7
S2Spanik5Kolodziej2n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S3Spanik5Kolodziej2n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S4Spanik1Kolodziej2n = 3Kolodziej took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSpanikKolodziejS − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match36.931.4+5.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 453 vs 1265 / 188555.4%67.1%251 / 453 vs 1265 / 1885Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.61/Kolodziej 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik351113113K. Kolodziej2451180
LAug 18 · 10:50T. Spanik34911861K. Kolodziej4011711113
WAug 17 · 10:50T. Spanik331111113K. Kolodziej165560
WAug 7 · 10:25T. Spanik52811139113K. Kolodziej44118111132
WAug 3 · 15:25T. Spanik361411113K. Kolodziej2112450
LAug 3 · 11:45T. Spanik25410110K. Kolodziej361112133
WAug 2 · 14:35T. Spanik4312711133K. Kolodziej3910117111
T. Spanik10
WSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691WSep 26 · 11:40T. Spanik1.7314511113A. Abbasi2.001211791LSep 26 · 10:00T. Spanik1.5711119562G. Adamiak2.25561111113WSep 26 · 09:00T. Spanik1.83115811113K. Petas1.8351111762LSep 26 · 08:05T. Spanik1.83156111192K. Petas1.831311138113WSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.50891191T. Spanik1.5011119113WSep 26 · 04:55T. Spanik1.57111113113M. Miastowski2.25871571LSep 26 · 03:45T. Spanik1.678890M. Jadczyk2.101111113LSep 15 · 14:35M. Olejnik1.73131412113T. Spanik2.0015121071
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 26 · 13:20K. Kolodziej1.8081160K. Petas1.911113113LSep 26 · 12:05M. Miastowski2.20971111113K. Kolodziej1.6111116572LSep 26 · 10:50A. Abbasi1.671111123K. Kolodziej2.1077100LSep 26 · 09:20G. Adamiak1.9111116113K. Kolodziej1.80671161WSep 25 · 15:25P. David1.363770K. Kolodziej3.001111113LSep 25 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz1.831111113K. Kolodziej1.837980WSep 25 · 12:30K. Wloczko2.2079111172K. Kolodziej1.61111168113WSep 25 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.447590K. Kolodziej2.631111113LSep 25 · 10:00M. Miastowski1.671112123K. Kolodziej2.10710100LSep 24 · 14:35P. David1.308111011113K. Kolodziej3.4011412782
Upcoming Matches
T. Spanik
Sep 27 · 03:00T. Spanik1.61K. Kolodziej2.20—Sep 27 · 04:30T. Spanik1.50M. Jadczyk2.50—Sep 27 · 05:15T. Spanik1.83K. Petas1.83—Sep 27 · 07:20T. Spanik1.53G. Adamiak2.38—Sep 27 · 08:05T. Spanik1.73M. Miastowski2.00—Sep 27 · 09:00T. Spanik1.83K. Petas1.83—Sep 27 · 10:25T. Spanik1.50M. Jadczyk2.50—Sep 27 · 11:15T. Spanik1.57K. Kolodziej2.25—Sep 27 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67M. Miastowski2.10—
K. Kolodziej
Sep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej2.20T. Spanik1.61—Sep 27 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.83K. Petas1.83—Sep 27 · 05:40K. Kolodziej2.30M. Miastowski1.48—Sep 27 · 06:55K. Kolodziej2.50M. Jadczyk1.50—Sep 27 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.73G. Adamiak2.00—Sep 27 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.67M. Miastowski2.10—Sep 27 · 10:00K. Kolodziej1.83K. Petas1.83—Sep 27 · 11:15K. Kolodziej2.25T. Spanik1.57—Sep 27 · 12:30K. Kolodziej1.73G. Adamiak2.00—
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