TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Maksymilian Miastowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191171214119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 84 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 9–11 Maksymilian Miastowski Krystian Kolodziej has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Miastowski beat Kolodziej 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1765 vs Miastowski 1830
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 20% vs Miastowski 40%
Miastowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 30% vs Miastowski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +1 · Miastowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.67 / Miastowski 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kolodziej)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13200449
Kolodziej1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 440 of 581
Up 2–0, closes it97% 278 of 286
Up 1–0, closes it87% 364 of 418
Miastowski2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 84 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej2wins
AwayMiastowski8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej28.6%2 of 7
AwayMiastowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej7Miastowski3n = 10Kolodziej took 7 of 10
S2Kolodziej4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S3Kolodziej2Miastowski8n = 10Miastowski took 8 of 10
S4Kolodziej1Miastowski5n = 6Miastowski took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejMiastowskiK − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.437.5−4.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1266 / 1888 vs 576 / 111467.1%51.7%1266 / 1888 vs 576 / 1114Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.67/Miastowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 12:05K. Kolodziej4011116572M. Miastowski49971111113
LSep 25 · 10:00K. Kolodziej27710100M. Miastowski351112123
LJun 3 · 17:00K. Kolodziej388117121M. Miastowski3911311143
LJun 2 · 19:00K. Kolodziej371271081M. Miastowski44101112113
LJun 1 · 15:55K. Kolodziej32118581M. Miastowski4071111113
WMay 12 · 20:10K. Kolodziej331111113M. Miastowski248790
LMay 11 · 20:35K. Kolodziej411198131M. Miastowski4691111153
LMar 11 · 18:00K. Kolodziej141490M. Miastowski331111113
LMar 9 · 21:35K. Kolodziej3911561162M. Miastowski46511118113
WAug 14 · 01:30K. Kolodziej331111113M. Miastowski197840
K. Kolodziej10
WSep 27 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.831311113K. Petas1.8311820LSep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej2.251511951T. Spanik1.5717311113LSep 26 · 14:35T. Spanik1.611111113K. Kolodziej2.208960LSep 26 · 13:20K. Kolodziej1.8081160K. Petas1.911113113LSep 26 · 12:05M. Miastowski2.20971111113K. Kolodziej1.6111116572LSep 26 · 10:50A. Abbasi1.671111123K. Kolodziej2.1077100LSep 26 · 09:20G. Adamiak1.9111116113K. Kolodziej1.80671161WSep 25 · 15:25P. David1.363770K. Kolodziej3.001111113LSep 25 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz1.831111113K. Kolodziej1.837980WSep 25 · 12:30K. Wloczko2.2079111172K. Kolodziej1.61111168113
M. Miastowski10
LSep 27 · 06:30K. Petas1.831111123M. Miastowski1.8376100WSep 27 · 04:55M. Miastowski1.531111133G. Adamiak2.3884110LSep 27 · 03:45M. Miastowski2.502121141M. Jadczyk1.5011148113LSep 26 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.25711512113M. Miastowski1.57119111042LSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691WSep 26 · 12:05M. Miastowski2.20971111113K. Kolodziej1.6111116572LSep 26 · 10:25M. Miastowski1.836111051K. Petas1.8311712113LSep 26 · 09:40A. Abbasi1.53911118133M. Miastowski2.38116611112LSep 26 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.10113411113M. Miastowski1.6761111742LSep 26 · 07:20M. Miastowski2.10871551K. Petas1.67111113113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kolodziej
M. Miastowski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.