TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jan Orszulik vs Jaroslaw Badura 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116114811116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:07 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
116114811116––
H2H Jan Orszulik 1–2 Jaroslaw Badura Jan Orszulik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Badura beat Orszulik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Orszulik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orszulik 1383 vs Badura 1419
Badura
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orszulik 60% vs Badura 80%
Badura
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orszulik 50% vs Badura 70%
Badura
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Orszulik +2 · Badura +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Orszulik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badura form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrszulik 1.73 / Badura 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Orszulik)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13198291
Orszulik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 39 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 36 of 46
Badura2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 53 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOrszulik1wins
AwayBadura2wins
Badura leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orszulik1Badura2n = 3Badura took 2 of 3
S2Orszulik2Badura1n = 3Orszulik took 2 of 3
S3Orszulik1Badura2n = 3Badura took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricOrszulikBaduraO − BBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match34.732.7+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrszulikBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 259 vs 313 / 57247.1%54.7%122 / 259 vs 313 / 572Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrszulikOrszulik 1.73/Badura 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Orszulik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Orszulik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 25 · 21:55J. Orszulik478112261J. Badura5311724113
WSep 12 · 05:05J. Orszulik331111113J. Badura113350
LSep 11 · 20:45J. Orszulik2481060J. Badura341112113
J. Orszulik10
WSep 26 · 02:45R. Wiza2.101211891J. Orszulik1.6514311113WSep 26 · 01:30O. Sokolowski2.406620J. Orszulik1.501111113LSep 25 · 23:55D. Fira2.25123711113J. Orszulik1.57101111642WSep 25 · 23:05R. Wiza2.3065121182J. Orszulik1.531111106113LSep 25 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.758112261J. Badura1.9511724113WSep 25 · 20:45L. Bernacki2.009970J. Orszulik1.721111113LSep 25 · 19:30O. Sokolowski2.351113123J. Orszulik1.54911100LSep 25 · 17:55D. Fira2.751291113113J. Orszulik1.37141171122WSep 16 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.2511511113M. Tkocz1.55411971LSep 16 · 00:45J. Orszulik2.458770P. Polok1.491111113
J. Badura10
WSep 26 · 04:40O. Sokolowski2.157970J. Badura1.601111113WSep 26 · 01:55D. Fira2.2510590J. Badura1.571211113LSep 26 · 01:10R. Wiza2.301111113J. Badura1.551460WSep 25 · 23:30L. Bernacki1.879113101J. Badura1.8311911123WSep 25 · 22:40O. Sokolowski2.20913111162J. Badura1.581111613113WSep 25 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.758112261J. Badura1.9511724113WSep 25 · 19:55D. Fira2.15117641J. Badura1.6371111113LSep 25 · 19:10L. Bernacki1.801111911113J. Badura1.9094111362WSep 25 · 17:30R. Wiza2.20109100J. Badura1.571211123LSep 19 · 16:40J. Badura1.85115611102O. Sokolowski1.80711118123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.