TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Denys Kovtanyuk vs Michal Szostak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119711116117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Szostak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
119711116117––
H2H Denys Kovtanyuk 1–1 Michal Szostak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:07What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Szostak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovtanyuk 1339 vs Szostak 1419
Szostak
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovtanyuk 40% vs Szostak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovtanyuk 40% vs Szostak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovtanyuk -2 · Szostak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Szostak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostak form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovtanyuk 1.98 / Szostak 1.75
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Szostak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13197359
Kovtanyuk1.98
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 24)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 14 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Szostak1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 18 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKovtanyuk1wins
AwaySzostak1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKovtanyukSzostakK − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.041.5+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovtanyukSzostakBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 186 vs 127 / 25629.6%49.6%55 / 186 vs 127 / 256Avg sets wonper match1.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostakKovtanyuk 1.98/Szostak 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Szostak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovtanyuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 26 · 06:35D. Kovtanyuk4011711113M. Szostak33911671
LSep 22 · 16:00D. Kovtanyuk48691111112M. Szostak50111187133
D. Kovtanyuk10
LSep 24 · 22:00D. Kovtanyuk1.8581090S. Toborek1.851112113LSep 24 · 20:00J. Komorowicz1.8691111123D. Kovtanyuk1.831165101WSep 24 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk1.951111113S. Toborek1.748690WSep 24 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk2.45118126113K. Patryk1.42911101192LSep 24 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.509131191L. Buklat1.4711156113WSep 24 · 14:30D. Kovtanyuk1.6011118113P. Kedzierski2.10961191LSep 22 · 21:30J. Komorowicz—81112123D. Kovtanyuk—11410101LSep 22 · 21:00D. Kovtanyuk2.50111531K. Patryk1.4611311113LSep 22 · 19:00P. Kedzierski2.1011811113D. Kovtanyuk1.65911391WSep 22 · 17:00J. Komorowicz1.85911119102D. Kovtanyuk1.85119911123
M. Szostak10
WSep 26 · 07:05S. Toborek2.40117471M. Szostak1.5081111113WSep 22 · 22:00K. Kos1.8591191372M. Szostak1.851161111113LSep 22 · 20:30M. Szostak2.0581160K. Kos1.661113113WSep 22 · 18:30J. Komorowicz1.959860M. Szostak1.741111113LSep 22 · 17:30M. Szostak2.10118571K. Patryk1.6551111113LSep 22 · 16:30P. Kedzierski2.401111113M. Szostak1.507680WSep 22 · 16:00M. Szostak1.95111187133D. Kovtanyuk1.74691111112LSep 9 · 20:30K. Kos1.771211113M. Szostak1.9310980WSep 9 · 19:30M. Szostak2.051211133K. Patryk1.68109110WSep 9 · 18:00J. Komorowicz1.74811111382M. Szostak1.951191311113
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