TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marian Melisek vs Karel Polak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7
53 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 5–8 Karel Polak Marian Melisek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Melisek beat Polak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.73 / Polak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melisek)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13195804
Melisek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 42 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 35 of 45
Polak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog59% won 34 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back25% 4 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek3wins
AwayPolak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek66.7%2 of 3
AwayPolak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek3Polak7n = 10Polak took 7 of 10
S2Melisek5Polak5n = 10split evenly
S3Melisek7Polak3n = 10Melisek took 7 of 10
S4Melisek2Polak4n = 6Polak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekPolakM − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.235.20.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 468 vs 164 / 33148.3%49.6%226 / 468 vs 164 / 331Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekMelisek 1.73/Polak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 25 · 16:00M. Melisek44111111113K. Polak33134881
WSep 21 · 16:58M. Melisek331111113K. Polak203890
LSep 21 · 16:00M. Melisek27512100K. Polak371114123
LSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek44111111652K. Polak46561311113
LJan 20 · 16:15M. Melisek464111110102K. Polak49116812123
LDec 20 · 11:15M. Melisek165560K. Polak331111113
LDec 19 · 14:10M. Melisek381081191K. Polak4012116113
LDec 19 · 11:30M. Melisek36981181K. Polak4111118113
WNov 26 · 16:00M. Melisek331111113K. Polak184590
M. Melisek10
WSep 25 · 16:00K. Polak1.67134881M. Melisek2.10111111113LSep 25 · 15:00T. Stejskal1.731311113M. Melisek2.0011480LSep 25 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.33119711113M. Melisek3.2571111862WSep 23 · 13:03M. Melisek1.6711117113J. Blazek2.10891191WSep 23 · 12:00M. Melisek1.3611116113D. Sabuka3.00761161WSep 23 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57711871M. Melisek2.2511811113LSep 23 · 10:00J. Blazek2.25511117113M. Melisek1.5711791132WSep 21 · 16:58M. Melisek2.501111113K. Polak1.503890LSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100WSep 21 · 15:00P. Fiser1.915440M. Melisek1.801111113
K. Polak10
LSep 25 · 16:00K. Polak1.67134881M. Melisek2.10111111113LSep 25 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.67111182K. Polak2.103780LSep 25 · 14:00T. Stejskal1.91811611113K. Polak1.8011811472LSep 24 · 16:58K. Polak2.751081191K. Farsky1.4012119113LSep 24 · 16:00K. Farsky1.441113113K. Polak2.6381160WSep 24 · 15:00L. Tuma1.5312790K. Polak2.381411113WSep 24 · 13:30P. Abraham1.53118981K. Polak2.3881111113WSep 22 · 16:39K. Polak1.67111489113M. Hasman2.10512111192LSep 21 · 16:58M. Melisek2.501111113K. Polak1.503890WSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100
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