TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Schwan vs Adrian Walek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6118111181012––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 9–8 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:27What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Walek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1631 vs Walek 1594
Schwan
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 60% vs Walek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 40% vs Walek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan +2 · Walek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Walek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schwan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 2.63 / Walek 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Walek)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13194748
Schwan2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 20)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 17 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Walek1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 48 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it65% 35 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchwan6wins
AwayWalek4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSchwan leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan75%6 of 8
AwayWalekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan8Walek2n = 10Schwan took 8 of 10
S2Schwan4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S3Schwan4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S4Schwan3Walek4n = 7Walek took 4 of 7
S5Schwan4Walek2n = 6Schwan took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchwanWalekS − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.9+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 290 vs 230 / 45747.9%50.3%139 / 290 vs 230 / 457Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WalekSchwan 2.63/Walek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Walek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 22 · 12:59J. Schwan49118711122A. Walek48711115143
LJul 22 · 10:30J. Schwan3911512832A. Walek518111011113
LJun 25 · 11:00J. Schwan2481060A. Walek341112113
WJun 24 · 12:00J. Schwan46114911113A. Walek3891111432
WJun 18 · 10:00J. Schwan46114811123A. Walek49911118102
WApr 27 · 13:01J. Schwan331111113A. Walek268990
WApr 27 · 11:30J. Schwan48111169113A. Walek4267111172
LApr 18 · 09:29J. Schwan32971151A. Walek3511112113
WApr 18 · 08:30J. Schwan45111184113A. Walek4499111142
WApr 17 · 10:30J. Schwan361411113A. Walek2212550
J. Schwan10
LSep 26 · 16:00E. Rychlik1.401111113J. Schwan2.756780LSep 26 · 15:00D. Langer1.571113113J. Schwan2.2561180WSep 20 · 08:58J. Schwan1.441111113J. Levicky2.634830WSep 20 · 08:00J. Schwan1.8311811123R. Skacelik1.837118101LSep 20 · 07:30R. Vavrecka1.611111113J. Schwan2.205760WSep 20 · 06:00J. Schwan1.50611812113J. Levicky2.50119111012LSep 17 · 17:01R. Skacelik2.00139811113J. Schwan1.73111111872LSep 17 · 16:30J. Schwan1.8310111081R. Skacelik1.8312912113LSep 17 · 15:00J. Schwan2.506460D. Unzeitig1.501111113LSep 17 · 14:00Z. Pagac1.3091311113J. Schwan3.401111511
A. Walek10
WSep 26 · 15:30A. Walek1.83111110113E. Rychlik1.83381241WSep 25 · 17:30S. Byrtus2.25671161A. Walek1.5711113113LSep 25 · 16:30A. Walek2.00710110S. Byrtus1.731112133WSep 25 · 15:00A. Walek1.831113911113D. Heczko1.83911111382WSep 25 · 14:00D. Langer1.7310580A. Walek2.001211113LSep 23 · 17:00A. Walek1.839101281D. Heczko1.83111210113LSep 23 · 16:00A. Walek1.6791111742D. Heczko2.10115811113LSep 23 · 15:30J. Levicky2.20461111123A. Walek1.61111189102WSep 23 · 14:00A. Walek2.201111113T. Petrek1.619890LSep 19 · 09:30A. Walek1.90111171192J. Simecek1.80913117113
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