TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Oliwier Sokolowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111313111171210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Oliwier Sokolowski below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 88 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 5–6 Oliwier Sokolowski Oliver Vincenec has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Sokolowski beat Vincenec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sokolowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1371 vs Sokolowski 1333
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 60% vs Sokolowski 80%
Sokolowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 60% vs Sokolowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec -1 · Sokolowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.83 / Sokolowski 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vincenec)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13194581
Vincenec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Sokolowski1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec4wins
AwaySokolowski6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSokolowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec100%4 of 4
AwaySokolowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Sokolowski6n = 10Sokolowski took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec6Sokolowski4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Vincenec5Sokolowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Vincenec4Sokolowski3n = 7Vincenec took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecSokolowskiV − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.637.60.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime691 / 1506 vs 257 / 59045.9%43.6%691 / 1506 vs 257 / 590Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecVincenec 1.83/Sokolowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 20:30O. Vincenec4051011141O. Sokolowski4411125163
WSep 11 · 18:10O. Vincenec4211911113O. Sokolowski35911871
LJul 30 · 11:00O. Vincenec34712871O. Sokolowski43111011113
LJul 30 · 04:55O. Vincenec441011211102O. Sokolowski51128118123
WApr 12 · 13:30O. Vincenec3911611113O. Sokolowski31511781
LApr 12 · 07:30O. Vincenec259880O. Sokolowski331111113
LMar 7 · 05:50O. Vincenec47612111532O. Sokolowski5811101313113
WDec 21 · 18:05O. Vincenec341211113O. Sokolowski2310850
LDec 21 · 09:45O. Vincenec387121091O. Sokolowski44111012113
WDec 20 · 18:05O. Vincenec331111113O. Sokolowski143650
O. Vincenec10
LSep 25 · 23:45O. Vincenec1.80691111112R. Szymik1.91111187133WSep 25 · 22:10O. Vincenec2.251111113K. Juszczyk1.578780WSep 25 · 21:00O. Vincenec1.8361111113L. Oracz1.83117581LSep 25 · 20:30O. Sokolowski1.8311125163O. Vincenec1.8351011141WSep 25 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.83911119113L. Oracz1.8311671152WSep 25 · 18:10W. Jozala2.10125881O. Vincenec1.67101111113LSep 25 · 16:55M. Baron1.91811119113O. Vincenec1.8011741192LSep 25 · 15:25K. Juszczyk1.801711113O. Vincenec1.9115260WSep 23 · 17:05M. Rus2.801171011102O. Vincenec1.37611127123WSep 23 · 15:55O. Vincenec2.15821111113M. Baron1.6011118782
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 26 · 00:10O. Sokolowski1.80611671M. Baron1.9111611113WSep 25 · 22:35O. Sokolowski2.63611116113L. Oracz1.4411691192WSep 25 · 21:45R. Szymik1.80111190O. Sokolowski1.911313113WSep 25 · 20:30O. Sokolowski1.8311125163O. Vincenec1.8351011141WSep 25 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.5091111113W. Jozala2.50119471WSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski1.73411911113M. Baron2.0011611872LSep 25 · 16:15O. Sokolowski2.385540K. Juszczyk1.531111113LSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski2.751091171L. Oracz1.4012117113LSep 24 · 08:20A. Burkacki2.051091211113O. Sokolowski1.65121110832WSep 24 · 07:35J. Nowak2.1681080O. Sokolowski1.631112113
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