TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliwier Sokolowski vs Mariusz Baron 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611116611711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliwier Sokolowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliwier Sokolowski above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Oliwier Sokolowski at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 4–5 Mariusz Baron Oliwier Sokolowski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sokolowski beat Baron 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sokolowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1339 vs Baron 1266
Sokolowski
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 100% vs Baron 20%
Sokolowski
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 70% vs Baron 30%
Sokolowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski +5 · Baron -2
Sokolowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sokolowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 1.80 / Baron 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sokolowski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13195234
Sokolowski1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 87 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 66 of 80
Baron1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 190 of 475
Down 0–1, comes back25% 64 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSokolowski4wins
AwayBaron5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderBaron leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayBaron66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski3Baron6n = 9Baron took 6 of 9
S2Sokolowski4Baron5n = 9Baron took 5 of 9
S3Sokolowski4Baron5n = 9Baron took 5 of 9
S4Sokolowski4Baron2n = 6Sokolowski took 4 of 6
S5Sokolowski2Baron2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricSokolowskiBaronS − BBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match37.141.8−4.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 589 vs 873 / 182943.6%47.7%257 / 589 vs 873 / 1829Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolowskiSokolowski 1.80/Baron 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sokolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski46411911113M. Baron4311611872
WSep 17 · 15:55O. Sokolowski50961212113M. Baron501111101082
LSep 17 · 09:55O. Sokolowski2251070M. Baron341112113
LSep 9 · 23:35O. Sokolowski408913101M. Baron45111111123
LSep 4 · 20:30O. Sokolowski3711711352M. Baron44411711113
LAug 13 · 08:45O. Sokolowski178540M. Baron331111113
WAug 13 · 00:25O. Sokolowski361312113M. Baron30111090
LAug 11 · 12:45O. Sokolowski42311151122M. Baron57119179113
WAug 11 · 10:20O. Sokolowski4411117153M. Baron409711131
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 26 · 01:00O. Vincenec1.83111311123O. Sokolowski1.8313117101WSep 25 · 22:35O. Sokolowski2.63611116113L. Oracz1.4411691192WSep 25 · 21:45R. Szymik1.80111190O. Sokolowski1.911313113WSep 25 · 20:30O. Sokolowski1.8311125163O. Vincenec1.8351011141WSep 25 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.5091111113W. Jozala2.50119471WSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski1.73411911113M. Baron2.0011611872LSep 25 · 16:15O. Sokolowski2.385540K. Juszczyk1.531111113LSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski2.751091171L. Oracz1.4012117113LSep 24 · 08:20A. Burkacki2.051091211113O. Sokolowski1.65121110832WSep 24 · 07:35J. Nowak2.1681080O. Sokolowski1.631112113
M. Baron10
WSep 26 · 01:25M. Baron2.2511911113L. Oracz1.57711581LSep 25 · 22:55R. Szymik1.4011116113M. Baron2.75861151LSep 25 · 21:20K. Juszczyk1.73199117123M. Baron2.001711811102WSep 25 · 20:05M. Baron2.00611119113L. Oracz1.7311571182LSep 25 · 18:30K. Juszczyk1.6711129113M. Baron2.109101181LSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski1.73411911113M. Baron2.0011611872WSep 25 · 16:55M. Baron1.91811119113O. Vincenec1.8011741192WSep 25 · 15:50M. Baron1.571111113W. Jozala2.256380LSep 23 · 16:40B. Madej2.55991411113M. Baron1.42111112892LSep 23 · 15:55O. Vincenec2.15821111113M. Baron1.6011118782
Upcoming Matches
O. Sokolowski
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron
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