TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Syksa vs Oleksandr Lyman 2-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
11711935––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:44 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Syksa to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Syksa above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-5
Point 46 set 3, 3-5 — our read held Oleksandr Syksa at 85.6%
46 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Syksa 30–3 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 3 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Syksa beat Lyman 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:44What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Syksa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-3 in 33
Syksa
Correct
gap of 27 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Syksa 1557 vs Lyman 1430
Syksa
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Syksa 40% vs Lyman 60%
Lyman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Syksa 60% vs Lyman 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Syksa +1 · Lyman +3
Lyman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Syksa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSyksa 1.17 / Lyman 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Syksa)+6.2pp
Setka Cup · #13190126
Syksa1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 247 of 363
Up 2–0, closes it94% 104 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it83% 166 of 201
Lyman4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 65 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSyksa10wins
AwayLyman0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSyksa leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSyksa100%7 of 7
AwayLyman0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Syksa7Lyman3n = 10Syksa took 7 of 10
S2Syksa8Lyman2n = 10Syksa took 8 of 10
S3Syksa9Lyman1n = 10Syksa took 9 of 10
S4Syksa5Lyman1n = 6Syksa took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSyksaLymanS − LBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.529.1+10.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSyksaLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime593 / 1118 vs 266 / 60953%43.7%593 / 1118 vs 266 / 609Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SyksaSyksa 1.17/Lyman 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Syksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Syksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 06:30O. Syksa331111113O. Lyman207940
WSep 21 · 09:00O. Syksa45111112113O. Lyman304131031
WSep 18 · 05:00O. Syksa4211911113O. Lyman30811561
WSep 17 · 09:30O. Syksa539111111113O. Lyman4311461392
WSep 11 · 10:00O. Syksa4171111123O. Lyman361196101
WSep 10 · 09:30O. Syksa331111113O. Lyman239680
WSep 6 · 10:00O. Syksa4111136113O. Lyman348111141
WSep 4 · 06:00O. Syksa331111113O. Lyman227780
WSep 1 · 08:30O. Syksa4181111113O. Lyman32118491
WAug 27 · 04:30O. Syksa331111113O. Lyman217680
O. Syksa10
WSep 24 · 11:30O. Syksa1.30111111113S. Miroshnychenko3.40135981LSep 24 · 09:30D. Kuzmenko2.201111113O. Syksa1.618990LSep 24 · 07:30M. Hubenko1.401711113O. Syksa2.7515860WSep 24 · 06:30O. Syksa1.201111113O. Lyman4.337940LSep 24 · 05:30O. Kurylenko2.101111119113O. Syksa1.6784131172WSep 23 · 11:30S. Miroshnychenko3.259550O. Syksa1.331111113WSep 23 · 10:00O. Syksa1.5751112113S. Maliuk2.251181071WSep 23 · 08:00M. Hubenko1.4498111192O. Syksa2.63111187113LSep 23 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.501113123O. Syksa1.50911100WSep 23 · 05:00D. Prylepa2.75811971O. Syksa1.4011611113
O. Lyman10
LSep 25 · 06:00D. Prylepa1.361111113O. Lyman3.007750WSep 24 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.6781271162O. Lyman2.101110119113WSep 24 · 10:00S. Miroshnychenko3.0011780O. Lyman1.361311113WSep 24 · 08:30D. Kuzmenko1.44771171O. Lyman2.6311115113LSep 24 · 06:30O. Syksa1.201111113O. Lyman4.337940LSep 24 · 04:30M. Hubenko1.3011511113O. Lyman3.40511941WSep 22 · 10:30O. Lyman2.201011718143O. Ziakun1.611251116122LSep 22 · 09:00O. Lyman2.509950S. Maliuk1.501111113LSep 22 · 07:30O. Lyman2.004560O. Kurylenko1.731111113LSep 22 · 06:00O. Lyman2.753111111102D. Kuzmenko1.40119139123
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