TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Daniel Tuma 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811115511114
Daniel Tuma
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 83 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 54.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 13–11 Daniel Tuma Daniel Tuma has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Zmuda beat Tuma 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:00What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Zmuda
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1630 vs Tuma 1598
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 80% vs Tuma 60%
Zmuda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 80% vs Tuma 60%
Zmuda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +3 · Tuma +2
Zmuda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zmuda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.73 / Tuma 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Zmuda)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13189169
Zmuda1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 59 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Tuma2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 165 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back30% 55 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back11% 10 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZmuda4wins
AwayTuma6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmuda100%4 of 4
AwayTuma100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S2Zmuda7Tuma3n = 10Zmuda took 7 of 10
S3Zmuda4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S4Zmuda2Tuma5n = 7Tuma took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZmudaTumaZ − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.138.0−0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 255 vs 776 / 148052.2%52.4%133 / 255 vs 776 / 1480Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.73/Tuma 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 10:00P. Zmuda49117911113D. Tuma4251111962
WSep 22 · 03:30P. Zmuda4311118133D. Tuma388811111
LSep 22 · 24:30P. Zmuda34711881D. Tuma4011711113
LSep 17 · 07:30P. Zmuda52913111092D. Tuma531111812113
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Zmuda351113113D. Tuma2551190
LAug 22 · 07:30P. Zmuda326511101D. Tuma4011116123
WAug 10 · 22:00P. Zmuda361113123D. Tuma27611100
LAug 1 · 18:00P. Zmuda2385100D. Tuma341111123
LAug 1 · 02:58P. Zmuda354119111D. Tuma4311811133
LAug 1 · 24:00P. Zmuda32811581D. Tuma3811511113
P. Zmuda10
WSep 24 · 12:00P. Zmuda1.8011111113M. Sobisek1.91119891WSep 24 · 11:30V. Cermak1.7341160P. Zmuda2.001113113WSep 24 · 10:00P. Zmuda1.73117911113D. Tuma2.0051111962LSep 23 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.4061140M. Vedmoch2.751113113WSep 23 · 08:00M. Vedmoch2.63311371P. Zmuda1.4411511113WSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka1.83108111382P. Zmuda1.831211511113LSep 23 · 06:30P. Zmuda1.4471131192J. Plachy2.63119115113WSep 22 · 17:00P. Zmuda1.571111113M. Vedmoch2.258640WSep 22 · 16:30P. Zmuda2.25114811113M. Volf1.5781111872WSep 22 · 15:00P. Zmuda1.731211113M. Vedmoch2.0010890
D. Tuma10
WSep 24 · 12:30D. Tuma2.1011116113V. Cermak1.67861181WSep 24 · 11:00D. Tuma1.83111110113M. Sobisek1.83761281LSep 24 · 10:00P. Zmuda1.73117911113D. Tuma2.0051111962LSep 23 · 17:30D. Tuma1.788870M. Sobisek1.921111113WSep 23 · 16:30V. Cermak1.73125981D. Tuma2.00101111113WSep 23 · 15:30D. Tuma1.73101111113J. Trefny2.00128671LSep 23 · 14:30M. Sobisek1.9131111113D. Tuma1.80115721WSep 23 · 13:00M. Sobisek1.9177110D. Tuma1.801111133WSep 23 · 12:00D. Tuma1.8011911163M. Volf1.919112141LSep 23 · 11:30V. Cermak1.80911911133D. Tuma1.91116119112
Upcoming Matches
P. Zmuda
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D. Tuma
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