TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Cermak vs Daniel Tuma 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210511911811––
Daniel Tuma
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 61–48 Daniel Tuma Daniel Tuma has won 48 of their 109 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Cermak beat Tuma 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-48 in 109
Cermak
Wrong
gap of 13 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1567 vs Tuma 1600
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 60% vs Tuma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 50% vs Tuma 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -1 · Tuma +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cermak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.73 / Tuma 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cermak)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178856
Cermak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it91% 71 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it78% 115 of 147
Tuma2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 167 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back29% 54 of 185
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak5wins
AwayTuma5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak42.9%3 of 7
AwayTuma33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak7Tuma3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S2Cermak4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S3Cermak4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S4Cermak8Tuma2n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S5Cermak1Tuma4n = 5Tuma took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakTumaC − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.942.7+3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1085 vs 775 / 147950.8%52.4%551 / 1085 vs 775 / 1479Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakCermak 1.73/Tuma 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 11:30V. Cermak53911911133D. Tuma48116119112
WSep 18 · 01:30V. Cermak4071111113D. Tuma34119771
LSep 14 · 12:00V. Cermak49118911102D. Tuma47411119123
LSep 8 · 23:30V. Cermak4481111952D. Tuma47115911113
LAug 17 · 08:59V. Cermak43111210101D. Tuma4351412123
LAug 17 · 08:00V. Cermak55111091692D. Tuma524121114113
WJul 23 · 10:30V. Cermak4111711123D. Tuma367118101
WJul 23 · 07:30V. Cermak43111011113D. Tuma34912491
LJul 19 · 18:30V. Cermak4813781192D. Tuma521111118113
WJul 16 · 11:30V. Cermak4311119123D. Tuma348511101
V. Cermak10
WSep 23 · 17:00V. Cermak1.501111113J. Trefny2.505430LSep 23 · 15:00V. Cermak2.1071111192M. Sobisek1.67111175113WSep 23 · 14:00J. Trefny1.851420V. Cermak1.851111113LSep 23 · 13:30V. Cermak2.1061111992M. Volf1.65119511113WSep 23 · 12:30M. Sobisek1.8011107101V. Cermak1.9181211123WSep 23 · 11:30V. Cermak1.80911911133D. Tuma1.91116119112LSep 23 · 10:30M. Volf1.67115511113V. Cermak2.1091111782LSep 18 · 03:30A. Hlawatschke1.27961116143V. Cermak3.251111814122WSep 18 · 01:30V. Cermak1.6771111113D. Tuma2.10119771WSep 18 · 24:30F. Just2.63116551V. Cermak1.4471111113
D. Tuma10
LSep 23 · 17:30D. Tuma1.788870M. Sobisek1.921111113WSep 23 · 15:30D. Tuma1.73101111113J. Trefny2.00128671LSep 23 · 14:30M. Sobisek1.9131111113D. Tuma1.80115721WSep 23 · 13:00M. Sobisek1.9177110D. Tuma1.801111133WSep 23 · 12:00D. Tuma1.8011911163M. Volf1.919112141LSep 23 · 11:30V. Cermak1.80911911133D. Tuma1.91116119112LSep 23 · 10:00D. Tuma1.807970M. Sobisek1.911111113LSep 22 · 03:30D. Tuma1.758811111P. Zmuda1.9511118133WSep 22 · 01:30D. Tuma2.201111113A. Hlawatschke1.616580LSep 18 · 01:30V. Cermak1.6771111113D. Tuma2.10119771
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