TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kaczmarek vs Marian Lebek 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5119111181113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
5119111181113––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 20–60 Marian Lebek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 20 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.18 (78%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-60 in 80
Lebek
Correct
gap of 40 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1361 vs Lebek 1400
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 60% vs Lebek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 50% vs Lebek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +1 · Lebek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (60%) is below what odds imply (85%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 4.10 / Lebek 1.18
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Lebek)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13188913
Kaczmarek4.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 172 of 499
Down 0–1, comes back18% 56 of 314
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 176
Lebek1.18
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 241 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it96% 162 of 168
Up 1–0, closes it83% 213 of 258
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek2wins
AwayLebek8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLebek88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek1Lebek9n = 10Lebek took 9 of 10
S2Kaczmarek1Lebek9n = 10Lebek took 9 of 10
S3Kaczmarek2Lebek8n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Lebek1n = 3Kaczmarek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekLebekK − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match25.835.2−9.4per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 1329 vs 857 / 147137.4%58.3%497 / 1329 vs 857 / 1471Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekKaczmarek 4.10/Lebek 1.18
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.3%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek188280M. Lebek331111113
LSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2710890M. Lebek341211113
WSep 16 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek4111811113M. Lebek38911991
LSep 10 · 04:20J. Kaczmarek2591240M. Lebek361114113
LSep 9 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek206590M. Lebek331111113
LSep 3 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek226880M. Lebek331111113
LAug 28 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek322111091M. Lebek3911512113
LAug 26 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek115330M. Lebek331111113
WAug 13 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek47861111113M. Lebek4011116662
LAug 12 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek154740M. Lebek331111113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 24 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.8511121313113J. Nowak1.85714151182LSep 24 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010101117112R. Skotniczny1.351212715133WSep 24 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek1.88113611173A. Burkacki1.82411118152LSep 24 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.258280M. Lebek1.271111113WSep 24 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek1.761112113O. Sokolowski1.9061060LSep 22 · 08:45I. Szymanski2.551111113J. Kaczmarek1.459790WSep 22 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek3.45111411133K. Hetnar1.269167111LSep 22 · 06:25K. Kowalski3.7511711113J. Kaczmarek1.22611891LSep 22 · 05:10R. Gajda1.8311611113J. Kaczmarek1.87911691WSep 22 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111151082J. Kaczmarek1.70691112113
M. Lebek10
LSep 25 · 02:20P. Polok2.351213113M. Lebek1.50101190LSep 25 · 01:35J. Nowak1.5311116113M. Lebek2.36991171WSep 24 · 23:35G. Jurowicz2.7581030M. Lebek1.371112113WSep 24 · 22:50M. Tkocz2.405680M. Lebek1.501111113WSep 24 · 21:10P. Adamus1.95511461M. Lebek1.7011811113LSep 24 · 08:00M. Lebek1.95111061192R. Skotniczny1.75912118113WSep 24 · 06:45M. Lebek1.4011611113A. Burkacki2.77911771LSep 24 · 05:35M. Lebek1.6011813101O. Sokolowski2.1581115123WSep 24 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.258280M. Lebek1.271111113LSep 24 · 03:35M. Lebek1.579121021J. Nowak2.27111012113
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