TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Franek vs Sebastian Kasnik 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Tomas Franek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114611118111––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:58 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Franek above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 63 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 55.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Franek 3–9 Sebastian Kasnik Tomas Franek has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Franek beat Kasnik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:58What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kasnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Kasnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Franek 1679 vs Kasnik 1510
Franek
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Franek 60% vs Kasnik 20%
Franek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Franek 60% vs Kasnik 30%
Franek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Franek -2 · Kasnik -3
Kasnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFranek 2.10 / Kasnik 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Franek)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13187476
Franek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 23 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Kasnik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 99 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it91% 58 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFranek2wins
AwayKasnik8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFranek33.3%1 of 3
AwayKasnik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Franek3Kasnik7n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Franek3Kasnik7n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S3Franek2Kasnik8n = 10Kasnik took 8 of 10
S4Franek2Kasnik5n = 7Kasnik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFranekKasnikF − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.537.3−3.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFranekKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 178 vs 472 / 100950%46.8%89 / 178 vs 472 / 1009Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikFranek 2.10/Kasnik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Franek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 03:00T. Franek3911611113S. Kasnik24411811
WSep 24 · 24:00T. Franek521211711113S. Kasnik3814511442
LSep 2 · 01:30T. Franek3911126101S. Kasnik4691411123
LFeb 5 · 04:30T. Franek238870S. Kasnik331111113
LFeb 4 · 23:30T. Franek321011741S. Kasnik4112711113
LJan 16 · 23:30T. Franek409119111S. Kasnik4111611133
LJan 9 · 24:00T. Franek29541191S. Kasnik4011117113
LJan 2 · 23:30T. Franek224990S. Kasnik331111113
LDec 5 · 01:00T. Franek381191081S. Kasnik4391112113
LOct 30 · 23:30T. Franek2110560S. Kasnik341211113
T. Franek10
LSep 24 · 02:30T. Franek1.839119101R. Wagner1.8311911123LSep 24 · 01:30J. Tazler1.83781111113T. Franek1.8311117992WSep 24 · 24:00T. Franek2.001211711113S. Kasnik1.7314511442WSep 23 · 23:00M. Sychra2.252820T. Franek1.571111113WSep 18 · 03:28M. Klement1.8061030T. Franek1.911112113LSep 18 · 02:00M. Klement1.911112113T. Franek1.8031030WSep 18 · 24:30T. Franek2.1091111113V. Vejvoda1.67119951WSep 17 · 23:00T. Franek1.50118144113M. Regner2.50611121162WSep 17 · 22:00M. Skakal1.806111141T. Franek1.9111137113LSep 4 · 02:58T. Franek1.676850M. Klement2.101111113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 24 · 02:00S. Kasnik2.00111151082M. Sychra1.73281112113LSep 24 · 01:00S. Kasnik2.2511175962R. Wagner1.576151111113LSep 24 · 24:00T. Franek2.001211711113S. Kasnik1.7314511442WSep 23 · 22:30J. Tazler2.10813671S. Kasnik1.67111111113LSep 23 · 21:30M. Pikous1.531311113S. Kasnik2.3811560WSep 23 · 20:00S. Kasnik1.911111123D. Hofman1.8048100LSep 23 · 19:30M. Pikous1.571111113S. Kasnik2.257860WSep 23 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.101111113M. Bittner1.678720LSep 22 · 21:00M. Vondrak1.821191110113S. Kasnik1.8881191222LSep 22 · 20:30S. Kasnik1.736480M. Skakal2.001111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Franek
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S. Kasnik
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