TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Fashchevskyi vs Mykhailo Potapov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171412811118––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 82 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 55.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 17–13 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-13 in 30
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1499 vs Potapov 1541
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 60% vs Potapov 40%
Fashchevskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi +2 · Potapov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.00 / Potapov 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Potapov)+1.4pp
Setka Cup · #13185655
Fashchevskyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 90 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 28 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 49
Potapov1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 48 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi6wins
AwayPotapov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi100%5 of 5
AwayPotapov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S2Fashchevskyi4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi7Potapov3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi2Potapov6n = 8Potapov took 6 of 8
S5Fashchevskyi3Potapov0n = 3Fashchevskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovF − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.50.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 605 vs 203 / 43049.6%47.2%300 / 605 vs 203 / 430Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovFashchevskyi 2.00/Potapov 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.1%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 24:45I. Fashchevskyi337111051M. Potapov3811412113
WSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi5311101110113M. Potapov4661281282
LSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2679100M. Potapov341111123
WSep 9 · 08:35I. Fashchevskyi45115117113M. Potapov4381161172
WSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi331111113M. Potapov225890
LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi31811661M. Potapov4111811113
WSep 2 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi46116117113M. Potapov4081141162
LAug 20 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi28571151M. Potapov4111118113
WAug 12 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi3611311113M. Potapov32611691
WJul 31 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi4491112123M. Potapov3811710101
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 24 · 16:25I. Fashchevskyi2.501211108113Y. Tebenko1.50108121182WSep 24 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi2.25611811113D. Maltsev1.5711811462LSep 24 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.25811421O. Storozhenko1.5711611113LSep 24 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi2.00911811112I. Pytsko1.73119113133WSep 23 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.2091411113O. Storozhenko1.611112971LSep 23 · 24:45M. Potapov1.8011412113I. Fashchevskyi1.917111051LSep 22 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi2.007690I. Pytsko1.731111113WSep 22 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.501191081I. Fashchevskyi2.5091112113LSep 22 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi2.25119691D. Maltsev1.5761111113LSep 21 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2.2571060D. Maltsev1.571112113
M. Potapov10
LSep 24 · 16:55M. Potapov1.91131260D. Maltsev1.801514113WSep 24 · 15:55M. Potapov2.10116117113I. Pytsko1.6751181152WSep 24 · 14:25M. Potapov1.80121325113Y. Tebenko1.911011111132LSep 24 · 12:25M. Potapov2.2511791162O. Storozhenko1.57911114113LSep 23 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80116861Y. Tebenko1.9181111113WSep 23 · 24:45M. Potapov1.8011412113I. Fashchevskyi1.917111051LSep 22 · 23:15M. Potapov1.8311661132D. Maltsev1.83611119113LSep 22 · 21:45M. Potapov2.20661171I. Pytsko1.6111119113WSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50114871WSep 21 · 18:25I. Pytsko1.616111081M. Potapov2.2011912113
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