TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Potapov vs Denys Maltsev 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
13151214611––––
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 71 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 20–21 Denys Maltsev Mykhailo Potapov has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-21 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1555 vs Maltsev 1551
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 60% vs Maltsev 0%
Potapov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Maltsev 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +2 · Maltsev -5
Maltsev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.91 / Maltsev 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maltsev)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13185895
Potapov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Maltsev1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 110 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it88% 68 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 84 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov5wins
AwayMaltsev5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov50%3 of 6
AwayMaltsev50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov6Maltsev4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S2Potapov5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S3Potapov4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S4Potapov4Maltsev4n = 8split evenly
S5Potapov3Maltsev3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovMaltsevP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.841.1+0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 429 vs 462 / 89447.3%51.7%203 / 429 vs 462 / 894Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevPotapov 1.91/Maltsev 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 23:15M. Potapov3711661132D. Maltsev48611119113
LSep 21 · 15:55M. Potapov30115951D. Maltsev4291111113
LSep 20 · 23:45M. Potapov247980D. Maltsev331111113
WSep 9 · 10:35M. Potapov548131111113D. Maltsev4411152972
WSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov331111113D. Maltsev217770
LSep 7 · 21:45M. Potapov511110111092D. Maltsev51812812113
WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov521111118113D. Maltsev4713971172
WSep 4 · 13:25M. Potapov49111179113D. Maltsev4284111182
WSep 1 · 12:05M. Potapov4211119113D. Maltsev32871161
LAug 20 · 21:45M. Potapov46711121242D. Maltsev511151410113
M. Potapov10
LSep 24 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011148113M. Potapov1.737121181WSep 24 · 15:55M. Potapov2.10116117113I. Pytsko1.6751181152WSep 24 · 14:25M. Potapov1.80121325113Y. Tebenko1.911011111132LSep 24 · 12:25M. Potapov2.2511791162O. Storozhenko1.57911114113LSep 23 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80116861Y. Tebenko1.9181111113WSep 23 · 24:45M. Potapov1.8011412113I. Fashchevskyi1.917111051LSep 22 · 23:15M. Potapov1.8311661132D. Maltsev1.83611119113LSep 22 · 21:45M. Potapov2.20661171I. Pytsko1.6111119113WSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50114871WSep 21 · 18:25I. Pytsko1.616111081M. Potapov2.2011912113
D. Maltsev10
LSep 24 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi2.25611811113D. Maltsev1.5711811462LSep 24 · 13:55D. Maltsev2.7591060I. Pytsko1.401112113LSep 24 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.8041111123D. Maltsev1.911189101LSep 23 · 03:15D. Maltsev2.509570I. Pytsko1.501111113LSep 23 · 01:15Y. Tebenko1.801111113D. Maltsev1.916750WSep 22 · 23:15M. Potapov1.8311661132D. Maltsev1.83611119113WSep 22 · 22:15D. Maltsev1.91131145113O. Storozhenko1.80114111182WSep 22 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi2.25119691D. Maltsev1.5761111113WSep 21 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2.2571060D. Maltsev1.571112113WSep 21 · 16:55D. Maltsev1.91111195113O. Storozhenko1.8096111192
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