TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Mykhailo Potapov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 30–47 Mykhailo Potapov Yaroslav Tebenko has won 30 of their 77 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-47 in 77
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 17 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1629 vs Potapov 1528
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Potapov 40%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Potapov 40%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Potapov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.53 / Potapov 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Tebenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13191186
Tebenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 58 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 39 of 48
Potapov2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko5wins
AwayPotapov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko75%3 of 4
AwayPotapov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko6Potapov4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S4Tebenko4Potapov3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5Tebenko1Potapov2n = 3Potapov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoPotapovT − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.536.0+0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 846 vs 203 / 43148.8%47.1%413 / 846 vs 203 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.53/Potapov 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 14:25Y. Tebenko461011111132M. Potapov43121325113
WSep 23 · 02:15Y. Tebenko4181111113M. Potapov31116861
LSep 12 · 02:15Y. Tebenko4811118992M. Potapov43821111113
WSep 9 · 07:05Y. Tebenko4391111123M. Potapov341176101
LSep 8 · 14:35Y. Tebenko2011720M. Potapov351311113
LSep 6 · 00:30Y. Tebenko2161050M. Potapov341112113
WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko44111147113M. Potapov4066111162
WSep 3 · 22:15Y. Tebenko361312113M. Potapov28111070
LSep 2 · 11:05Y. Tebenko26541161M. Potapov4111118113
WAug 21 · 00:45Y. Tebenko4011117113M. Potapov31991121
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 25 · 18:25Y. Tebenko1.8371181182O. Storozhenko1.83119115113WSep 25 · 16:25D. Maltsev2.00911771Y. Tebenko1.7311611113WSep 25 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.911211113I. Pytsko1.8010970WSep 25 · 14:25V. Moshovskyi1.61101070Y. Tebenko2.201212113WSep 24 · 18:25Y. Tebenko1.831211117113I. Pytsko1.8314561192LSep 24 · 16:25I. Fashchevskyi2.501211108113Y. Tebenko1.50108121182WSep 24 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.911111133O. Storozhenko1.8076110LSep 24 · 14:25M. Potapov1.80121325113Y. Tebenko1.911011111132WSep 24 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.8041111123D. Maltsev1.911189101WSep 23 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80116861Y. Tebenko1.9181111113
M. Potapov10
LSep 25 · 18:55M. Potapov2.10411791I. Pytsko1.6711911113LSep 25 · 16:55V. Moshovskyi2.10311611113M. Potapov1.6711811792LSep 25 · 14:55D. Maltsev1.801111113M. Potapov1.919980WSep 25 · 13:55M. Potapov2.6311511113O. Storozhenko1.44511771LSep 24 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011148113M. Potapov1.737121181LSep 24 · 16:55M. Potapov1.91131260D. Maltsev1.801514113WSep 24 · 15:55M. Potapov2.10116117113I. Pytsko1.6751181152WSep 24 · 14:25M. Potapov1.80121325113Y. Tebenko1.911011111132LSep 24 · 12:25M. Potapov2.2511791162O. Storozhenko1.57911114113LSep 23 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80116861Y. Tebenko1.9181111113
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