TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Skorski vs Kacper Marchlewski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Skorski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111179111012––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Skorski to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
5111179111012––
H2H Michal Skorski 7–5 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skorski beat Marchlewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skorski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Skorski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorski 1264 vs Marchlewski 1265
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorski 60% vs Marchlewski 20%
Skorski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorski 40% vs Marchlewski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorski +1 · Marchlewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skorski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorski 1.80 / Marchlewski 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skorski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13180698
Skorski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 137 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it99% 64 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it76% 108 of 142
Marchlewski1.86
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorski6wins
AwayMarchlewski4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkorski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorski100%5 of 5
AwayMarchlewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorski5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Skorski5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Skorski6Marchlewski4n = 10Skorski took 6 of 10
S4Skorski5Marchlewski1n = 6Skorski took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorskiMarchlewskiS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.033.5+0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime721 / 1492 vs 152 / 34848.3%43.7%721 / 1492 vs 152 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorskiSkorski 1.80/Marchlewski 1.86
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 17:20M. Skorski3851111113K. Marchlewski33115981
WJul 30 · 24:10M. Skorski3711114113K. Marchlewski32791151
LJul 29 · 15:00M. Skorski216780K. Marchlewski331111113
WSep 26 · 18:40M. Skorski3811511113K. Marchlewski35811881
WJul 2 · 02:20M. Skorski44111111113K. Marchlewski31713471
LJul 1 · 23:55M. Skorski4468111272K. Marchlewski521111910113
LJul 1 · 18:40M. Skorski227960K. Marchlewski331111113
WJun 27 · 20:15M. Skorski341112113K. Marchlewski2371060
LJun 14 · 02:20M. Skorski29711651K. Marchlewski3911611113
WJun 13 · 23:55M. Skorski331111113K. Marchlewski249690
M. Skorski10
WSep 23 · 24:10W. Gluszek1.9581080M. Skorski1.741112113WSep 22 · 22:55M. Skorski2.251212113M. Durda1.57101060LSep 22 · 21:05M. Skorski1.717750J. Rolak2.001111113LSep 22 · 20:05M. Durda1.661111113M. Skorski2.104870WSep 22 · 19:20J. Rolak2.00710111172M. Skorski1.70111276113WSep 22 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.80115981M. Skorski1.8651111113LSep 22 · 16:40D. Szlubowski1.5011117133M. Skorski2.408811111LSep 22 · 15:00W. Gluszek1.8511118113M. Skorski1.85761161LSep 20 · 14:20J. Pruszkowski1.201281115113M. Skorski3.85101161772LSep 20 · 13:30A. Eliasz1.90129115113M. Skorski1.80101181182
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 22 · 22:35K. Marchlewski2.1266121192J. Rolak1.571111106113WSep 22 · 21:55W. Gluszek1.8551112101K. Marchlewski1.8011614123LSep 22 · 19:40K. Marchlewski1.8511811642D. Szlubowski1.80911711113LSep 22 · 18:30K. Marchlewski1.9011128992M. Durda1.807101111113LSep 22 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.80115981M. Skorski1.8651111113WSep 22 · 16:20W. Gluszek1.85136100K. Marchlewski1.851511123LSep 22 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.88981261J. Rolak1.82111110113WSep 22 · 24:10A. Myszewski1.9021111692K. Marchlewski1.75117811113WSep 21 · 23:45K. Marchlewski—1111113M. Durda—7550WSep 21 · 22:55K. Marchlewski1.78911119113J. Przewlocki1.9311731192
Upcoming Matches
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K. Marchlewski
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