TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Marchlewski vs Dariusz Szlubowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119811117611411
Dariusz Szlubowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeDariusz Szlubowski to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
119811117611411
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 6–6 Dariusz Szlubowski Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Szlubowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1277 vs Szlubowski 1292
Szlubowski
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Szlubowski 60%
Szlubowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 70% vs Szlubowski 50%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -2 · Szlubowski +3
Szlubowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szlubowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.85 / Szlubowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szlubowski)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13179968
Marchlewski1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Szlubowski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 86 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski4wins
AwaySzlubowski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzlubowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski50%4 of 8
AwaySzlubowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski8Szlubowski2n = 10Marchlewski took 8 of 10
S2Marchlewski5Szlubowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski4Szlubowski6n = 10Szlubowski took 6 of 10
S4Marchlewski3Szlubowski4n = 7Szlubowski took 4 of 7
S5Marchlewski1Szlubowski4n = 5Szlubowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiSzlubowskiM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.938.4−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiSzlubowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 345 vs 203 / 34543.8%58.8%151 / 345 vs 203 / 345Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzlubowskiMarchlewski 1.85/Szlubowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Szlubowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szlubowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 16:55K. Marchlewski34971171D. Szlubowski4111118113
LSep 1 · 16:35K. Marchlewski3911581142D. Szlubowski50811119113
LAug 5 · 16:55K. Marchlewski3711113392D. Szlubowski49791111113
LJul 28 · 20:05K. Marchlewski4711118892D. Szlubowski48691111113
LJun 12 · 19:30K. Marchlewski207580D. Szlubowski331111113
WMay 1 · 19:30K. Marchlewski47119511113D. Szlubowski4361111692
WMar 20 · 21:40K. Marchlewski341111123D. Szlubowski2129100
WSep 26 · 19:30K. Marchlewski4211119113D. Szlubowski29581151
WAug 29 · 19:30K. Marchlewski331111113D. Szlubowski249870
LApr 25 · 19:30K. Marchlewski46117114132D. Szlubowski46311611153
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 22 · 18:30K. Marchlewski1.9011128992M. Durda1.807101111113LSep 22 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.80115981M. Skorski1.8651111113WSep 22 · 16:20W. Gluszek1.85136100K. Marchlewski1.851511123LSep 22 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.88981261J. Rolak1.82111110113WSep 22 · 24:10A. Myszewski1.9021111692K. Marchlewski1.75117811113WSep 21 · 23:45K. Marchlewski—1111113M. Durda—7550WSep 21 · 22:55K. Marchlewski1.78911119113J. Przewlocki1.9311731192WSep 21 · 21:05K. Marchlewski2.101111113M. Kowalczyk1.656880WSep 21 · 20:05J. Przewlocki1.5010470K. Marchlewski2.401211113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.619870K. Marchlewski2.151111113
D. Szlubowski10
WSep 22 · 18:55W. Gluszek2.45115941D. Szlubowski1.4991111113WSep 22 · 18:10D. Szlubowski1.71111111113J. Rolak2.00671361WSep 22 · 16:40D. Szlubowski1.5011117133M. Skorski2.408811111LSep 22 · 15:50M. Durda1.761111123D. Szlubowski1.9054100LSep 18 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.83114791K. Klocek1.8691111113LSep 18 · 18:30A. Pilch—117711123D. Szlubowski—411117102LSep 18 · 17:45M. Skorski1.851411113D. Szlubowski1.8012870WSep 18 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.3711611113K. Golaszewski2.50611451WSep 18 · 15:50D. Szlubowski1.461411113P. Strus2.5012730LSep 15 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.1611114113D. Szlubowski1.57881191
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