TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13162083
Played Sep 19Finished
Kamil Kowalewski
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711119911––
Karol Guzy
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kowalewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
911711119911––
H2H Kamil Kowalewski 23–40 Karol Guzy Kamil Kowalewski has won 23 of their 63 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kowalewski beat Guzy 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:17What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-40 in 63
Guzy
Correct
gap of 17 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalewski 1703 vs Guzy 1659
Kowalewski
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalewski 100% vs Guzy 60%
Kowalewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalewski 90% vs Guzy 60%
Kowalewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalewski +5 · Guzy +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalewski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalewski 2.10 / Guzy 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Guzy)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13162083
Kowalewski2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Guzy1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 170 of 282
Up 2–0, closes it92% 78 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it83% 127 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowalewski3wins
AwayGuzy7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalewski50%2 of 4
AwayGuzy83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalewski4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Kowalewski7Guzy3n = 10Kowalewski took 7 of 10
S3Kowalewski2Guzy8n = 10Guzy took 8 of 10
S4Kowalewski4Guzy3n = 7Kowalewski took 4 of 7
S5Kowalewski0Guzy3n = 3Guzy took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalewskiGuzyK − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.840.2−2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalewskiGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 329 vs 664 / 110160.8%60.3%200 / 329 vs 664 / 1101Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyKowalewski 2.10/Guzy 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 16:05K. Kowalewski331111113K. Guzy237880
WSep 18 · 14:00K. Kowalewski4011117113K. Guzy33891151
LSep 17 · 14:00K. Kowalewski49714101172K. Guzy551112129113
LSep 16 · 22:10K. Kowalewski239950K. Guzy331111113
LSep 16 · 14:00K. Kowalewski2265110K. Guzy351111133
LSep 6 · 14:15K. Kowalewski34118691K. Guzy4291111113
LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski4351181182K. Guzy47117117113
LSep 5 · 19:05K. Kowalewski381014771K. Guzy46121211113
LSep 4 · 19:30K. Kowalewski50111181372K. Guzy50761115113
WSep 3 · 22:40K. Kowalewski4691111153K. Guzy381168131
K. Kowalewski10
WSep 19 · 22:05P. Kos3.4081340K. Kowalewski1.201115113WSep 19 · 20:35K. Kowalewski1.40111110113B. Bartosz2.75451251WSep 19 · 18:35K. Zapala2.951489111K. Kowalewski1.35121111133WSep 19 · 16:05K. Guzy1.767880K. Kowalewski1.901111113WSep 19 · 15:35D. Bucko2.5011118692K. Kowalewski1.46881111113LSep 18 · 22:30K. Kowalewski1.607760P. Odelski2.201111113WSep 18 · 20:30K. Zapala2.907780K. Kowalewski1.301111113WSep 18 · 19:30B. Gola3.25711117132K. Kowalewski1.30117911153WSep 18 · 18:00P. Kos3.108880K. Kowalewski1.331111113WSep 18 · 15:30P. Odelski2.20471171K. Kowalewski1.6011118113
K. Guzy10
WSep 19 · 21:05K. Guzy1.90118611123D. Bucko1.76711114102WSep 19 · 19:35K. Guzy1.55111110113K. Zapala2.30671271WSep 19 · 18:05K. Guzy1.47611911113P. Kos2.5011311542LSep 19 · 16:05K. Guzy1.767880K. Kowalewski1.901111113LSep 19 · 15:05K. Guzy1.869113101B. Bartosz1.8311811123WSep 18 · 22:00B. Gola2.45125491K. Guzy1.49101111113WSep 18 · 20:00K. Guzy1.581111123P. Kos2.2535100WSep 18 · 18:30K. Guzy1.411411115113K. Zapala2.6016581182LSep 18 · 17:00K. Guzy1.6657100P. Odelski2.101111123LSep 18 · 15:00K. Guzy1.368340B. Gola2.651111113
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