TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140878
Played Sep 17Finished
Bartosz Czerwinski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119116––––
Rafal Stapor
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:24 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
117119116––––
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 10–1 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Stapor beat Czerwinski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-1 in 11
Czerwinski
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1527 vs Stapor 1449
Czerwinski
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 40% vs Stapor 80%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 60% vs Stapor 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski +1 · Stapor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Czerwinski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 1.57 / Stapor 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Czerwinski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13140878
Czerwinski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 85 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 60 of 72
Stapor2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 99 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back18% 31 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCzerwinski9wins
AwayStapor1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinski100%4 of 4
AwayStapor16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Czerwinski7Stapor3n = 10Czerwinski took 7 of 10
S3Czerwinski6Stapor4n = 10Czerwinski took 6 of 10
S4Czerwinski5Stapor2n = 7Czerwinski took 5 of 7
S5Czerwinski5Stapor0n = 5Czerwinski took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiStaporC − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.837.0+2.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 1051 vs 670 / 118347.2%56.6%496 / 1051 vs 670 / 1183Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiCzerwinski 1.57/Stapor 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 03:25B. Czerwinski331111113R. Stapor227960
LSep 16 · 12:40B. Czerwinski247980R. Stapor331111113
WSep 14 · 04:30B. Czerwinski4212118113R. Stapor341041191
WSep 11 · 11:25B. Czerwinski331111113R. Stapor248970
WSep 9 · 07:15B. Czerwinski3941113113R. Stapor341141181
WSep 3 · 10:35B. Czerwinski49611813113R. Stapor50118111192
WJun 23 · 07:15B. Czerwinski40113114113R. Stapor4581181172
WJun 23 · 04:50B. Czerwinski44921111113R. Stapor4511117882
WJun 22 · 07:15B. Czerwinski45711511113R. Stapor3711811432
WJun 22 · 04:50B. Czerwinski49811118113R. Stapor4611781192
B. Czerwinski10
WSep 17 · 04:10W. Suchecki4.05119581B. Czerwinski1.1871111113WSep 16 · 14:20B. Czerwinski1.25118811113M. Zwolinski3.4581111582LSep 16 · 12:40R. Stapor2.301111113B. Czerwinski1.527980WSep 16 · 11:50A. Szoltysek3.158750B. Czerwinski1.301111113LSep 16 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.9110111014112J. Zochniak1.801291212133LSep 16 · 09:50B. Czerwinski1.38711119112A. Myszewski2.80118911133WSep 15 · 14:20B. Czerwinski1.9511912113K. Rudomina1.755111041WSep 15 · 12:40W. Iwasyszyn3.10118101142B. Czerwinski1.30611128113WSep 15 · 11:50A. Sobel2.0099110B. Czerwinski1.711111133LSep 15 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.8591281192J. Witkowski1.851110118113
R. Stapor10
WSep 16 · 13:55R. Stapor1.5781111113A. Myszewski2.15118621WSep 16 · 12:40R. Stapor2.301111113B. Czerwinski1.527980LSep 16 · 11:25R. Stapor1.5061221142M. Zwolinski2.351110119113WSep 16 · 10:10A. Szoltysek2.46119771R. Stapor1.4441111113WSep 16 · 09:25R. Stapor2.60111147113J. Zochniak1.4195111152WSep 16 · 08:35R. Stapor1.7011611113A. Myszewski2.00811881LSep 16 · 06:55R. Stapor1.4512811101M. Zwolinski2.5014117123LSep 16 · 05:40R. Stapor1.50111199102A. Szoltysek2.40991111123WSep 16 · 04:10R. Stapor1.9891111113J. Glanowski1.73118861WSep 16 · 03:00R. Stapor1.701112113K. Klocek2.0031080
Upcoming Matches
B. Czerwinski
R. Stapor
Sep 17 · 04:55R. Stapor1.90F. Krcil1.80—Sep 17 · 06:05R. Stapor1.56K. Klocek2.18—Sep 17 · 07:20R. Stapor1.40B. Wisniewski2.60—Sep 17 · 08:35R. Stapor1.34W. Suchecki2.85—Sep 17 · 09:50R. Stapor2.47J. Zochniak1.44—Sep 17 · 10:35R. Stapor2.25M. Minda1.53—Sep 17 · 12:15R. Stapor3.30D. Kosmal1.26—Sep 17 · 13:05R. Stapor1.74F. Krcil1.91—Sep 17 · 13:55R. Stapor1.34W. Suchecki2.85—
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