TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138119
Played Sep 16Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111210211119411
Mariusz Zwolinski
Away
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:27 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
6111210211119411
H2H Rafal Stapor 3–1 Mariusz Zwolinski Mariusz Zwolinski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Zwolinski beat Stapor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1452 vs Zwolinski 1252
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 60% vs Zwolinski 40%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 70% vs Zwolinski 50%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +3 · Zwolinski +1
Stapor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.50 / Zwolinski 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stapor)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13138119
Stapor1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 380 of 608
Up 2–0, closes it96% 188 of 196
Up 1–0, closes it81% 288 of 357
Zwolinski2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 42 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayZwolinski1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStapor leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor2Zwolinski2n = 4split evenly
S2Stapor2Zwolinski2n = 4split evenly
S3Stapor3Zwolinski1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S4Stapor2Zwolinski1n = 3Stapor took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaporZwolinskiS − ZBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.234.8+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporZwolinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime668 / 1180 vs 130 / 35756.6%36.4%668 / 1180 vs 130 / 357Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.50/Zwolinski 2.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.8%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zwolinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 16 · 06:55R. Stapor4112811101M. Zwolinski4414117123
WSep 2 · 13:30R. Stapor4061211113M. Zwolinski301110631
WAug 19 · 11:00R. Stapor47114811133M. Zwolinski44511116112
WMar 1 · 15:40R. Stapor331111113M. Zwolinski213990
R. Stapor10
WSep 16 · 12:40R. Stapor2.301111113B. Czerwinski1.527980WSep 16 · 10:10A. Szoltysek2.46119771R. Stapor1.4441111113WSep 16 · 09:25R. Stapor2.60111147113J. Zochniak1.4195111152WSep 16 · 08:35R. Stapor1.7011611113A. Myszewski2.00811881LSep 16 · 06:55R. Stapor1.4512811101M. Zwolinski2.5014117123LSep 16 · 05:40R. Stapor1.50111199102A. Szoltysek2.40991111123WSep 16 · 04:10R. Stapor1.9891111113J. Glanowski1.73118861WSep 16 · 03:00R. Stapor1.701112113K. Klocek2.0031080WSep 15 · 08:35W. Iwasyszyn2.4661131142R. Stapor1.44119117113WSep 15 · 07:20R. Stapor1.721111113K. Klocek2.006890
M. Zwolinski10
LSep 16 · 13:30J. Zochniak1.151111113M. Zwolinski4.407990WSep 16 · 10:35A. Myszewski1.5712124552M. Zwolinski2.2010101111113LSep 16 · 09:00A. Szoltysek1.701112118113M. Zwolinski2.0561451192LSep 16 · 07:40J. Glanowski1.351112116113M. Zwolinski2.90610131192WSep 16 · 06:55R. Stapor1.4512811101M. Zwolinski2.5014117123LSep 16 · 06:05M. Zwolinski2.46916130A. Myszewski1.441118153WSep 16 · 04:30M. Zwolinski2.501111113K. Klocek1.465840WSep 16 · 03:50A. Szoltysek1.60891181M. Zwolinski2.1511116113LSep 9 · 13:55M. Zwolinski2.6513890J. Krawczyk1.421511113LSep 9 · 12:40M. Zwolinski3.909101161M. Minda1.1911129113
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