TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136502
Played Sep 16Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12148111171012––
Mariusz Zwolinski
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
12148111171012––
H2H Rafal Stapor 3–1 Mariusz Zwolinski Mariusz Zwolinski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1430 vs Zwolinski 1238
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Zwolinski 40%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Zwolinski 30%
Stapor
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Zwolinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.45 / Zwolinski 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Stapor)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13136502
Stapor1.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 380 of 608
Up 2–0, closes it96% 188 of 196
Up 1–0, closes it81% 288 of 357
Zwolinski2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 42 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayZwolinski1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStapor leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor2Zwolinski2n = 4split evenly
S2Stapor2Zwolinski2n = 4split evenly
S3Stapor3Zwolinski1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S4Stapor2Zwolinski1n = 3Stapor took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaporZwolinskiS − ZBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.234.8+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporZwolinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime666 / 1178 vs 128 / 35556.5%36.1%666 / 1178 vs 128 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.45/Zwolinski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zwolinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 16 · 06:55R. Stapor4112811101M. Zwolinski4414117123
WSep 2 · 13:30R. Stapor4061211113M. Zwolinski301110631
WAug 19 · 11:00R. Stapor47114811133M. Zwolinski44511116112
WMar 1 · 15:40R. Stapor331111113M. Zwolinski213990
R. Stapor10
WSep 16 · 08:35R. Stapor1.7011611113A. Myszewski2.00811881LSep 16 · 05:40R. Stapor1.50111199102A. Szoltysek2.40991111123WSep 16 · 04:10R. Stapor1.9891111113J. Glanowski1.73118861WSep 16 · 03:00R. Stapor1.701112113K. Klocek2.0031080WSep 15 · 08:35W. Iwasyszyn2.4661131142R. Stapor1.44119117113WSep 15 · 07:20R. Stapor1.721111113K. Klocek2.006890LSep 15 · 06:05A. Sobel1.5411711113R. Stapor2.25611391WSep 15 · 04:55J. Glanowski1.678350R. Stapor2.001111113LSep 15 · 03:25B. Wisniewski2.65111011113R. Stapor1.38912641WSep 14 · 07:40B. Wisniewski2.4061070R. Stapor1.501112113
M. Zwolinski10
LSep 16 · 09:00A. Szoltysek1.701112118113M. Zwolinski2.0561451192LSep 16 · 07:40J. Glanowski1.351112116113M. Zwolinski2.90610131192LSep 16 · 06:05M. Zwolinski2.46916130A. Myszewski1.441118153WSep 16 · 04:30M. Zwolinski2.501111113K. Klocek1.465840WSep 16 · 03:50A. Szoltysek1.60891181M. Zwolinski2.1511116113LSep 9 · 13:55M. Zwolinski2.6513890J. Krawczyk1.421511113LSep 9 · 12:40M. Zwolinski3.909101161M. Minda1.1911129113WSep 9 · 11:25M. Zwolinski2.051141111113A. Szoltysek1.6581113672LSep 9 · 10:10A. Lilien1.27141111133M. Zwolinski3.351679111LSep 9 · 09:25M. Zwolinski3.75104100P. Blocho1.201211123
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