TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129995
Played Sep 15Finished
Adam Linek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111311811118119
Bartosz Kwodawski
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 69.7% is still 69.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Linek to win
69.7%
69.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Linek above · Bartosz Kwodawski below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Adam Linek at 69.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Adam Linek 18–6 Bartosz Kwodawski Bartosz Kwodawski has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Linek beat Kwodawski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Linek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-6 in 24
Linek
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Linek 1580 vs Kwodawski 1313
Linek
Correct
both rated, 267 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Linek 100% vs Kwodawski 20%
Linek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Linek 80% vs Kwodawski 20%
Linek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Linek +5 · Kwodawski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Linek) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwodawski form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLinek 1.80 / Kwodawski 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Linek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13129995
Linek1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 104 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it72% 75 of 104
Kwodawski1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 41 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLinek7wins
AwayKwodawski3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLinek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLinek100%5 of 5
AwayKwodawski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Linek5Kwodawski5n = 10split evenly
S2Linek5Kwodawski5n = 10split evenly
S3Linek5Kwodawski5n = 10split evenly
S4Linek6Kwodawski2n = 8Linek took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLinekKwodawskiL − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.334.8+2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLinekKwodawskiBasisWin rate · lifetime790 / 1683 vs 192 / 45946.9%41.8%790 / 1683 vs 192 / 459Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LinekLinek 1.80/Kwodawski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Linek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Linek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 20:05A. Linek4391111123B. Kwodawski351159101
WAug 15 · 13:50A. Linek4111811113B. Kwodawski31411881
WAug 9 · 19:40A. Linek4211119113B. Kwodawski33961171
WJun 17 · 12:15A. Linek3711114113B. Kwodawski36971191
WJun 11 · 18:55A. Linek51119119113B. Kwodawski3721141192
LFeb 7 · 20:00A. Linek208750B. Kwodawski30111183
LDec 30 · 15:40A. Linek2659120B. Kwodawski361111143
WDec 20 · 18:00A. Linek3911314113B. Kwodawski378111261
WNov 17 · 10:50A. Linek4391112113B. Kwodawski341141091
LOct 27 · 15:20A. Linek31811391B. Kwodawski3911611113
A. Linek10
LSep 16 · 24:10L. Pietraszko1.50711711113A. Linek2.5011511872WSep 15 · 22:55A. Linek2.6311911113D. Solilo1.44611881WSep 15 · 21:00A. Linek1.9112312113K. Kostyk1.8010111091WSep 15 · 20:05B. Kwodawski1.911159101A. Linek1.8091111123WSep 15 · 19:15L. Pietraszko1.676980A. Linek2.101111113WSep 15 · 17:20J. Lamperski3.0010790A. Linek1.361211113LSep 15 · 16:30J. Witkowski1.50911812113A. Linek2.50116111072LSep 15 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.831111113A. Linek1.836870WSep 14 · 23:20K. Staszczyk1.40118119112A. Linek2.75711711133WSep 14 · 22:35D. Solilo1.57111113692A. Linek2.25961511113
B. Kwodawski10
WSep 16 · 24:35B. Kwodawski3.40118113113D. Solilo1.3061171162LSep 15 · 22:35B. Kwodawski2.50815111172K. Kostyk1.50111736113LSep 15 · 21:50L. Pietraszko1.361111113B. Kwodawski3.002850LSep 15 · 20:05B. Kwodawski1.911159101A. Linek1.8091111123WSep 15 · 18:30J. Lamperski1.9181361172B. Kwodawski1.801111112113LSep 15 · 17:40K. Kostyk1.5071111113B. Kwodawski2.50119891LSep 15 · 16:55B. Kwodawski2.757670L. Pietraszko1.401111113LSep 15 · 15:45B. Kwodawski3.259820J. Witkowski1.331111113LSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:55B. Sulkowski1.5311119113B. Kwodawski2.30671161
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