TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13127718
Played Sep 14Finished
Wojciech Tobiasz
Home
1.81
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118119118––
Patryk Mecik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:51 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePatryk Mecik to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
911118119118––
H2H Wojciech Tobiasz 53–29 Patryk Mecik Patryk Mecik has won 29 of their 82 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Tobiasz beat Mecik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:51What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (50%)
Tobiasz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-29 in 82
Tobiasz
Correct
gap of 24 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tobiasz 1276 vs Mecik 1266
Tobiasz
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tobiasz 40% vs Mecik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tobiasz 40% vs Mecik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tobiasz -1 · Mecik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tobiasz) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mecik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTobiasz 1.81 / Mecik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tobiasz)+3.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13127718
Tobiasz1.81
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 45 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it71% 32 of 45
Mecik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 103 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back19% 30 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTobiasz7wins
AwayMecik3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTobiasz leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTobiasz60%3 of 5
AwayMecik20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tobiasz5Mecik5n = 10split evenly
S2Tobiasz4Mecik6n = 10Mecik took 6 of 10
S3Tobiasz8Mecik2n = 10Tobiasz took 8 of 10
S4Tobiasz3Mecik6n = 9Mecik took 6 of 9
S5Tobiasz5Mecik1n = 6Tobiasz took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTobiaszMecikT − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.340.7+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTobiaszMecikBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 710 vs 329 / 82246.1%40%327 / 710 vs 329 / 822Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TobiaszTobiasz 1.81/Mecik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tobiasz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tobiasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 14:20W. Tobiasz4291111113P. Mecik36118981
WSep 14 · 06:20W. Tobiasz46111184123P. Mecik46771111102
LSep 7 · 11:30W. Tobiasz29115851P. Mecik4071111113
WSep 7 · 07:10W. Tobiasz43611114113P. Mecik4011871132
WAug 17 · 14:45W. Tobiasz331111113P. Mecik248970
WAug 17 · 11:05W. Tobiasz49691112113P. Mecik50111191092
WAug 10 · 13:30W. Tobiasz46117116113P. Mecik4891191182
WAug 10 · 07:30W. Tobiasz47681111113P. Mecik4011118552
LJul 27 · 12:45W. Tobiasz32931191P. Mecik3811115113
LJul 27 · 10:20W. Tobiasz4611811792P. Mecik45711511113
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 14 · 12:45W. Tobiasz1.95511461Y. Fomin1.7011611113WSep 14 · 11:30W. Tobiasz1.951111113M. Baron1.719940LSep 14 · 10:20Y. Fomin1.751011911113W. Tobiasz1.9012811962WSep 14 · 09:30G. Wichowski1.4271210101W. Tobiasz2.50111012123LSep 14 · 08:45W. Tobiasz2.856810J. Pruszkowski1.351111113WSep 14 · 07:10W. Tobiasz1.95125912113M. Baron1.711011111062WSep 14 · 06:20P. Mecik1.88771111102W. Tobiasz1.76111184123LSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731LSep 7 · 15:55S. Szostok1.509111111113W. Tobiasz2.4011981342LSep 7 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.70111167123W. Tobiasz2.00381111102
P. Mecik10
LSep 14 · 13:30P. Mecik3.0586110J. Pruszkowski1.291111133LSep 14 · 12:20P. Mecik2.6581120G. Wichowski1.381113113WSep 14 · 10:40P. Mecik1.99811911123M. Baron1.68119119102WSep 14 · 09:05Y. Fomin1.7571181192P. Mecik1.95117116113LSep 14 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.4131111113P. Mecik2.55119741WSep 14 · 07:30P. Mecik2.7511911113J. Pruszkowski1.37811791LSep 14 · 06:20P. Mecik1.88771111102W. Tobiasz1.76111184123LSep 12 · 08:00O. Sokolowski1.9014511113P. Mecik1.801211951LSep 12 · 07:10W. Pytlas1.57111193113P. Mecik2.2598111172WSep 12 · 06:25P. Mecik2.0111118113O. Sokolowski1.66981191
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